Preview:Ethiopia vs. Guinea-Bissau - prediction, team news, lineups

Ethiopia ‘host’ Guinea-Bissau at Stade Amahoro in Kigali in the penultimate round of World Cup 2026 Qualifying, aiming to put paid to the away nation's slim hopes of finishing second in Group A.

The second-bottom Walia Ibex have no chance of reaching next year's finals, while Djurtus are five points behind Burkina Faso in second place, highlighting the 'away' nation's need to secure all points on Wednesday.

Match preview

Ethiopia aim to secure only their second victory of the qualifying series when they face Guinea-Bissau on Wednesday, though the possibility is slim given Walia’s previous results.

The Walia Ibex have lost four of their matches and secured one victory in eight games, with four defeats and three draws.

While their only triumph came in March’s international fixtures, the fact that it was against Djibouti adds necessary context, considering their dismal results in qualifying.

Djibouti have one point from a possible 24, scoring four and conceding 28; therefore, Ethiopia's 6-1 victory must be viewed within this context.

While Mesay Teferi Kassa's team could mathematically finish above Guinea-Bissau in Group A — if they win their remaining two matches and Guinea-Bissau drop points in both — the 'home’ team have very little to play for in the ninth and final round of fixtures.

The Djurtus hope to capitalise on Ethiopia having nothing at stake on Wednesday, as they make a late bid to finish as the second-placed team in Group A.

Luis Boa Morte's team have 10 points from eight games, placing them five points behind Burkina Faso and 10 behind Egypt, who have 20.

With Guinea-Bissau no longer able to catch the North African giants, they could still finish as runners-up in the group; however, that relies on Djurtus claiming all six points over their final two matches, while both Burkina Faso (15 points) and Sierra Leone (12) slip up in the upcoming games.

Considering that their final match pits them against Egypt in Cairo, Boa Morte's team face a challenging task if they are to end as one of the four best second-placed teams in the African qualifying section to advance to the continent's second round.

Djurtus, however, must secure maximum points to keep that possibility alive entering the fixture on October 12, and they aim to outdo the Ethiopians in Kigali on Wednesday.

Ethiopia World Cup Qualifying - Africa form:

Ethiopia form (all competitions):

Guinea-Bissau World Cup Qualifying - Africa form:

Guinea-Bissau form (all competitions):

Team News

Abubeker Nasir Ahmed, the hat-trick hero against Djibouti in March, is not included in Teferi’s squad, leaving the Walia Ibex to find attacking solutions with other players.

Fortunately, Bereket Desta Dana has also scored three goals in qualifying for Ethiopia, and the forward, who has contributed 42.9% of his team’s seven goals in qualifying, aims to increase his tally in midweek.

Guinea-Bissau will have to navigate both qualifying matches without Mama Balde and Carlos Mane due to injury, with Balde being a significant miss as he leads the 'away' team's goal-scoring chart with three goals; however, Everton striker Beto could lead the attack.

Also missing is Alfa Semedo, who has assisted three goals in qualifying but has not played for the Djurtus since March's internationals.

Alvaro Djalo and Ronaldo Vieira could make their first appearances for Boa Morte's team after recently switching national allegiance to the West African nation.

Ethiopia possible starting lineup:

Nura; Kebede, Ramkel, Gebreselassie, Kassaye; Tekeste, Wolde, Sherefa; Gezahegn, Abera, Desta

Guinea-Bissau possible starting lineup:

Balde; Encada, Sangante, Cande, Cassama; Bura, Mane, Camara; Franculino, Beto, Folgado

We say: Ethiopia 1-2 Guinea-Bissau

Since Ethiopia can no longer secure a top-two finish, Guinea-Bissau, who still have a slim chance of finishing second, are expected to secure a narrow victory despite missing some key players.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.