Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lillestrom win with a probability of 43.82%. A win for Sandefjord had a probability of 32.69% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lillestrom win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.37%) and 0-2 (6.26%). The likeliest Sandefjord win was 2-1 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lillestrom would win this match.