Bottom-of-the-table Derby County travel to Coventry City in the Championship on Saturday afternoon.
The Rams are seven points adrift of safety due to their 12 point deduction for going into administration, while the Sky Blues are flying high in fourth.
Match preview
© Reuters
Derby have proved resolute in the face of adversity, losing just one of their last six matches since it was reported that they would be placed into administration.
However, the Rams must start winning games if they are to pull off a great escape as they have drawn three consecutive matches in the Championship.
Wayne Rooney said it was "a tough one to take" as his side twice led against Luton Town on Tuesday evening through Tom Lawrence and Jason Knight, but were pegged back each time to draw 2-2.
Only league leaders Bournemouth have conceded fewer goals in the Championship than Derby this season, but at the other end of the pitch the Rams are the division's second-lowest scorers.
The club's away form must also improve, as they have won just one of their last 15 league games on the road and scored only twice away from Pride Park this season.
© Reuters
Therefore, they will not be pleased to see that Coventry still have a perfect record on home turf in 2021-22 – winning all six of their games at the Coventry Building Society Arena, scoring 14 goals and conceding just three times.
The Sky Blues are surprise early promotion contenders and sit just three points behind the top two, but lost for only the second time in eight matches on Wednesday against Preston North End.
Tyler Walker scored for the second successive game to give Coventry a halftime lead, but the Lilywhites fought back after the break to win 2-1.
The result followed a 2-2 draw away at Blackburn Rovers last weekend; Mark Robins's side have not gone three league games without a win since the start of April.
Furthermore, the Sky Blues have not kept a clean sheet in their last four outings, having kept three in their previous four.
- D
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- W
- L
- W
- D
- D
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Jake Clarke-Salter returned to Coventry's matchday squad in midweek after a period of self-isolation and is pushing to start on Saturday.
Top scorer Viktor Gyokeres has not found the net in his last two appearances – he has not gone three games without a goal this season.
It was somewhat surprising to see the Swede feature on Wednesday night after he suffered an ankle injury last weekend; there is a chance Martyn Waghorn will take his place for this game.
Derby will be without Sam Baldock who broke his nose against Preston last weekend and Craig Forsyth who is suffering from illness.
Baldock's absence means Tom Lawrence should continue upfront, with Colin Kazim-Richards not up to full fitness after his return from injury.
Ryan Allsop's error against Luton on Tuesday has led to some suggestions that Kelle Roos could return in goal on Saturday.
Coventry City possible starting lineup:
Moore; Hyam, McFadzean, Clarke-Salter; Dabo, Kelly, Hamer, Maatsen; O'Hare; Gyokeres, Walker
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Allsop; Byrne, Jagielka, Davies, Buchanan; Bird, Shinnie; Knight, Morrison, Jozwiak; Lawrence
We say: Coventry City 1-0 Derby County
Considering Coventry's perfect home record and Derby's patchy away record, this game seems likely to end only one way. That said, the Rams are not easily beaten and will certainly make life difficult for the Sky Blues.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coventry City win with a probability of 49.64%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 22.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coventry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.57%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (9.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
