Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valenciennes win with a probability of 85.72%. A draw had a probability of 9.5% and a win for Neuilly sur Marne had a probability of 4.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valenciennes win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.89%) and 4-0 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.32%), while for a Neuilly sur Marne win it was 1-2 (1.55%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Valenciennes would win this match.