Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pau win with a probability of 87.11%. A draw had a probability of 9.2% and a win for Aviron Bayonnais had a probability of 3.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pau win was 0-3 with a probability of 12.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.5%) and 0-4 (10.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.36%), while for an Aviron Bayonnais win it was 1-0 (1.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pau would win this match.