Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America de Natal win with a probability of 60.76%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Uniao Carmolandense had a probability of 14.55%.
The most likely scoreline for an America de Natal win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.7%) and 1-2 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%), while for a Uniao Carmolandense win it was 1-0 (6.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.