Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Madureira win with a probability of 35.11%. A win for ABC had a probability of 33.53% and a draw had a probability of 31.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Madureira win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.27%) and 2-0 (6.19%). The likeliest ABC win was 0-1 (11.66%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (14.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.