Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Madureira win with a probability of 46.73%. A win for Baré had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Madureira win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.33%) and 0-2 (8.09%). The likeliest Baré win was 1-0 (7.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.