Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Joinville win with a probability of 36.3%. A win for Sao Bernardo had a probability of 32.75% and a draw had a probability of 30.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Joinville win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.24%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Sao Bernardo win was 0-1 (12.55%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.67%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.