Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Joinville win with a probability of 39.78%. A draw had a probability of 32.13% and a win for Centro Sportivo Alagoano had a probability of 28.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Joinville win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.83%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.9%) , while for a Centro Sportivo Alagoano win it was 0-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.7% likelihood.