Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manaus win with a probability of 65.08%. A draw had a probability of 22.32% and a win for Capital FC had a probability of 12.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manaus win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.39%) and 1-2 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%) , while for a Capital FC win it was 1-0 (5.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.