The Chicago Fire have an opportunity to extend their unbeaten streak to three games on Saturday when they host Real Salt Lake at Soldier Field in their final regular-season home fixture of 2021.
Frank Klopas collected his first victory as interim manager when the Fire won in Cincinnati for the first time 4-3, while Salt Lake captured the Rocky Mountain Cup last week with a 3-1 win over the Colorado Rapids.
Match preview
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A roller-coaster match in midweek went the way of Chicago as some of their big guns came up with massive performances in a game that could have gone either way.
It has to be frustrating knowing that some of their top goalscoring threats have come to life a little too late, seeing as the Fire are out of contention for a playoff spot.
Since the dismissal of Raphael Wicky, the players look a lot looser and appear to be having more fun, something that we have not often seen from this group throughout the year.
Even though they will miss the postseason for a fourth consecutive campaign, Klopas deserves a ton of credit for how he has been able to drive this team back upstream, drawing the New England Revolution before a breathtaking finale at TQL Stadium on Wednesday.
Chicago have left it late but still managed to come away with seven points in their last four games, including an 88th-minute equaliser last weekend and a stunning 93rd-minute strike versus the Orange-and-Blue.
Wednesday was only the second victory away from home for Chicago this season, and winning this upcoming match would give them their second-longest unbeaten run of the season before they wrap up the year with two road fixtures.
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While a cup victory is sweet, Pablo Mastroeni and his team are more interested in getting back into the playoffs after missing out in the shortened 2020 campaign.
Claret and Cobalt had a big bounce-back performance at Rio Tinto Stadium against their biggest rivals, Colorado, taking the lead after 13 minutes and doing a great job throughout the match of finding space with some great movement on and off the ball.
RSL set a club record last week with its seventh successive home win, but they have not had the same kind of success outside of Rio Tinto Stadium, losing seven of their last eight matches as the visitors and getting outscored 7-2 in their previous two road games.
Since coming in to replace Freddy Juarez, Mastroeni has emphasised that his team play higher up the pitch while pressing more as a means to win a lot of second balls, and we saw that in spades last Saturday.
That style seems to have served them well as it has enabled their star players to get the ball in some dangerous areas, and when they do that, they are a difficult team to beat with plenty of quality in midfield and attack.
A 3-2 comeback win by the Vancouver Whitecaps over the Portland Timbers means that Salt Lake are outside of the playoff picture, but they are only a point below the postseason line with a game in hand on the Caps.
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Team News
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A sensational injury-time volley by Luka Stojanovic gave Chicago the win over Cincy, while Robert Beric, who had 12 goals a year ago, chipped in with a brace, his fourth and fifth of the season.
Alvaro Medran, who leads the Fire in assists with six, has goals in back-to-back games, with three now on the year, putting him just one behind Ignacio Aliseda for third on the team.
Boris Sekulic came on as a substitute on Wednesday, his first action since September 11, while Carlos Teran and Fabian Herbers are still recovering from right thigh issues, Francisco Calvo is questionable due to health and safety protocols and Kenneth Kronholm is still missing with a right knee injury.
Damir Kreilach recorded his 14th goal of the season last Saturday, his fifth in his last five games, setting a new RSL record, while Albert Rusnak and Aaron Herrera picked up their 10th and 11th assists, respectively.
Rubio Rubin and Anderson Julio scored second-half goals to put their game with the Rapids out of reach, as they each have eight on the season.
Andrew Brody returned to the starting 11 for the first time since July 3, while Zack Farnsworth and Marcelo Silva remain sidelined with undisclosed injuries.
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Slonina; M. Navarro, Bornstein, Sekulic, Espinoza; Gimenez, Pineda, F. Navarro, Aliseda; Beric, Stojanovic
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Herrera, Holt, Glad; Brody, Besler, Ruiz, Meram; Rusnak; Rubin, Kreilach
We say: Chicago Fire 1-2 Real Salt Lake
In the ultra-competitive Western Conference playoff race, no teams still in contention seem to be faltering, and we do not expect RSL to drop points in this one.
The Fire may be playing their best soccer of the season, but Salt Lake have come through all year when they need it most and with their top attacking threats in fine form, look for them to spot plenty of gaps in the Chicago backline, a backline that have conceded nine goals over their last three games.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 55.85%. A win for Real Salt Lake had a probability of 22.22% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.79%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Real Salt Lake win was 1-2 (5.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chicago Fire would win this match.
