Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ipswich Town win with a probability of 48.01%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 27.17% and a draw had a probability of 24.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ipswich Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 0-1 (7.35%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.