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Ceara
Brasileiro | Gameweek 14
Aug 2, 2021 at 12.30am UK
Castelao
Fortaleza

Ceara
3 - 1
Fortaleza

Kelvyn (37'), Cleber (81'), Rick (86')
Marlon (55'), Lacerda (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Tinga (11')
de Vargas (53'), David (60'), Titi (75')

Preview: Ceara vs. Fortaleza - prediction, team news, lineups

Preview: Ceara vs. Fortaleza - prediction, team news, lineups
© Reuters
Sports Mole previews Sunday's Brasileiro clash between Ceara and Fortaleza, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Fortaleza will aim to continue their strong early season form in Brasileiro against state rivals Ceara on Sunday.

This fixture, between the two most prominent teams on Brazil's north east coast who share a stadium, is commonly referred to as 'The King Derby'.


Match preview

Ceara's Saulo Mineiro with teammates after the match on June 20, 2021© Reuters

Having led the league table after the first four games, Fortaleza now find themselves third and four points behind leaders Palmeiras, who they face next weekend.

It has been an impressive debut campaign at the helm so far for Juan Pablo Vojvoda, who took over after the club finished 16th in 2020.

Leao do Pici have conceded the fewest goals in Brasileiro (nine) and have won their last four league matches, keeping clean sheets in all of them.

Thursday saw them carry their good form into the Copa do Brasil, as they won 2-1 in the first leg of their round of 16 tie against Clube de Regatas Brasil, coming from behind courtesy of two penalties in the space of six minutes from Wellington Paulista.

Fortaleza knocked Ceara out of the same competition in June, winning 4-1 on aggregate, and are unbeaten in their last five matches against their rivals.

However, Vojvoda's men have faltered away from home at times this year and have won just one of their last five matches on the road.

All four of Ceara's league wins this season have come at home, and they are unbeaten in their last nine games – although six of those have been draws.

That includes a 0-0 stalemate against struggling Sport Recife last time out, which was Richard's sixth clean sheet of the season – no other Brasileiro goalkeeper has more in 2021.

At the other end of the pitch, Ceara's attacking output has been shared around. Their 14 goals have been scored by nine different players and no one has more than two.

Currently in seventh, all of Guto Ferreira's side's next six fixtures (including this one) come against teams currently in the top 10.

Ceara Brasileiro form:
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • D

Fortaleza Brasileiro form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Fortaleza form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Ceara coach Guto Ferreira pictured during a match on February 10, 2021© Reuters

Ceara will be boosted by Buiu, Marlon and Stiven Mendoza all returning from suspension for the derby.

Gabriel Dias is on the verge of being back available having been out injured for the last month, but this game might come just too soon for him.

Striker Cleber has not scored since the beginning of June, but he should continue upfront with Jael still suspended.

Former Manchester United youngster Angelo Henriquez could make his Fortaleza debut after being ineligible since signing in early July as the transfer does not officially go through until the day of the game.

Robson has scored in his last three league matches and only two players have netted more Brasileiro goals this season than the 30-year-old (six).

Ceara possible starting lineup:
Richard; Buiu, Lacerda, Messias, Pacheco; Sobral, Marlon; Rick, Jorginho, Mendoza; Cleber

Fortaleza possible starting lineup:
Boeck; Tinga, Benevenuto, Titi; Pikachu, Ronald, Felipe, Crispim; Vargas; Robson, David


SM words green background© PA Photos

We say: Ceara 1-1 Fortaleza

Both teams have proven hard to beat this season so this game would have been a naturally tense affair anyway, but throw into the equation that they are fierce rivals and the match should be a fascinating watch; we think it is too tight to call so are predicting a draw.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Written by
Olly Allen

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 43.59%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 28.81% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.39%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ceara would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Ceara vs Fortaleza

Ceara
35.0%
Draw
35.0%
Fortaleza
30.0%
20
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rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1FlamengoFlamengo117312442024
2Cruzeiro11722178923
3BragantinoBragantino11722148623
4PalmeirasPalmeiras11713128422
5Fluminense116231512320
6Botafogo11533147718
7Bahia115331111018
8Mirassol114521712517
9Atletico Mineiro114521110117
10CearaCeara114341311215
11Corinthians114341214-215
12Gremio114341114-315
13Sao Paulo11263911-212
14InternacionalInternacional112541216-411
15Vasco da GamaVasco113171115-410
16Vitoria112451014-410
17FortalezaFortaleza112451015-510
18SantosSantos11227812-48
19JuventudeJuventude11227824-168
20Sport RecifeSport11038518-133


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