Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 39.66%. A win for Santos had a probability of 34.39% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.57%) and 0-2 (6.72%). The likeliest Santos win was 1-0 (8.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.