Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 49.4%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 21.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (9.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cuiaba would win this match.