Blackburn Rovers travel to St Andrew's to face Birmingham City on Saturday as they look to overcome a poor run of form that has seen them slip down the table.
Rovers were narrowly beaten in midweek by a Huddersfield Town team that leapfrogged them in the table after a 2-1 home win, while City were hammered by a revived Derby County side who ran out 4-0 winners.
Match preview
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Wherever Aitor Karanka has managed, he has always set about building his teams on a strong defensive foundation. So it will be surprising to some that the Blues have conceded 12 in their last five, twice conceding four goals at home.
Only at the start of December were City coming off the back of two noteworthy wins over Bristol City and Reading, but have since slumped to no wins in their last five, comprising of four losses and a draw.
What is worse, they are now being dragged into a relegation fight and are now only seven points clear of 22nd place with teams below them starting to pick up points.
One thing that does fall in Karanka's favour is City's extended good run of form against Rovers, which consists of only one loss in their last 12 league meetings.
The Blues will hope to start the year on a positive note, and avoid losing in their first match of the calendar year for consecutive seasons for the first time since 2007 and 2008, after losing 3-2 to Wigan Athletic last January.
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Tony Mowbray will hope that 2021 will bring more fortune on the injury front, while some added consistency would not go amiss either after what has been an up-and-down season so far for Rovers.
They find themselves in 14th place and have lost their last three away matches on the bounce having scored only one goal in that run.
Mowbray will likely highlight his side's defensive frailties as an area for improvement, having not kept a clean sheet in their preceding nine straight games, while Rovers have also secured only one clean sheet at St Andrew's in the past 17 years.
Mowbray himself cannot boast any success against the Blues either, having not won an away league match against Birmingham in his managerial career.
Birmingham City Championship form: WLLLDL
Blackburn Rovers Championship form: LLWLDL
Team News
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Having struggled for form at home this season, Karanka could look to revert to the 4-2-3-1 formation that saw his side gain wins earlier in December.
As for injuries and suspensions, Karanka has no issues and should have a full squad to choose from for Rovers' visit.
For Mowbray, he will still be without veteran winger Elliott Bennett, defender Scott Wharton, midfielder Joe Rankin-Costello and Northern Ireland international Corry Evans.
Due to these injuries, Mowbray will have little choice but to field the same lineup that started last time out.
Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Colin, Roberts, Dean, Friend; Clayton, Sunjic; Sanchez, Toral, Bela; Hogan
Blackburn Rovers possible starting lineup:
Kaminski; Nyambe, Lenihan, Ayala; Douglas; Downing, Johnson, Rothwell; Elliott, Armstrong, Brereton
We say: Birmingham City 1-2 Blackburn Rovers
Poor recent form from both sides means that we are likely to see two sides bereft of any confidence. Still, given City's poor defensive numbers, we see this as something Rovers could exploit seeing as they have Adam Armstrong, the league's second top goalscorer in their ranks. With all of this in mind, we see Rovers sneaking an away win.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Blackburn Rovers win with a probability of 52.22%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 22.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Blackburn Rovers win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.3%) and 1-2 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.08%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 1-0 (7.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Blackburn Rovers would win this match.
