UEFA Nations League

[monks data]

Nations League | League A

Oct 14, 2020 at 7.45pm UK

Laugardalsvöllur

Iceland
1 - 2
Belgium

Mar Saevarsson (17')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Lukaku (9', 38' pen.)
Witsel (85')

Preview: Iceland vs. Belgium - prediction, team news, lineups

By Darren Plant, Senior Reporter

Published: October 12 2020 | 14:00

Last updated: June 5 2024 | 13:46

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's UEFA Nations League fixture between Iceland and Belgium, including team news and predicted lineups.

Belgium square off against Iceland on Wednesday evening looking to bounce back from their UEFA Nations League setback versus England at the weekend.

Meanwhile, the home side realistically need to avoid defeat against the world's best team if they are to remain in with a chance of avoiding relegation to Section B.

Match preview

Roberto Martinez pictured ahead of Belgium's Euro 2020 qualifier against Russia on March 21, 2019 © Reuters

In the space of less than a week, Belgium have gone from being on a 12-match winning streak spanning almost two years to going back-to-back fixtures without recording a victory.

Although the failure to defeat either Ivory Coast or England will not necessarily concern Roberto Martinez, he will want to end their blip as soon as possible.

Martinez may allude to the fact that a weakened side only failed to beat Ivory Coast due to a late penalty and the defeat versus the Three Lions came courtesy of another spot kick and a heavily-deflected shot.

Nevertheless, failing to score from open play is a rarity for Belgium, and Martinez will call for that to be put right in a game which they will want to win by a wide margin.

Now facing a one-point deficit to England, the Red Devils will look to further boost their goal difference in the event that it becomes decisive next month.

While Iceland can mathematically still finish top of this group, the Scandinavian side are realistically out of the picture with their focus solely on remaining in the top tier.

Their heavy defeat to Denmark at the weekend has left Iceland sitting four points adrift of third, meaning that Erik Hamren's side require at least one win and one draw from their remaining fixtures.

With their Euro 2020 playoff against Hungary next month getting their full attention, Hamren and his squad may be happy to write off this campaign over the coming weeks.

That said, there are still places up for grabs for that showdown, something which should provide Strakarnir okkar with an extra edge against the best team in the world.

Iceland Nations League form: LLL
Iceland form (all competitions): WWLLWL

Belgium Nations League form: WWL
Belgium form (all competitions): WWWWDL

Team News

Dries Mertens in action for Napoli on October 2, 2019 © Reuters

With Kevin De Bruyne having withdrawn from the squad, the playmaker could be replaced by Dries Mertens.

Timothy Castagne and Dedryck Boyata have started the previous two matches, realistically leaving them in line to be rested for this contest.

Youngsters Yari Verschaeren and Jeremy Doku are pushing for starting roles in the final third after their second-half outings at the weekend.

Iceland star Gylfi Sigurdsson could drop down to the substitutes' bench after beginning the last two fixtures.

Veteran Ragnar Sigurdsson is also expected to be handed a rest by Hamren.

Iceland possible starting lineup:
Halldorsson; Paisson, Arnason, Ingason, Magnusson; Anderson, Bjarnason, Sigurjonsson, Gudmundsson; Finnbogason, Bodvarsson

Belgium possible starting lineup:
Mignolet; Alderweireld, Denayer, Dendoncker; Meunier, Witsel, Tielemans, Carrasco; Trossard, Mertens; Lukaku

SM words green background

We say: Iceland 0-4 Belgium

Even if Martinez opts to make a number of alterations for this contest, we can only see one victor. Belgium will want to further boost their goal difference, and the Red Devils will likely show a ruthless streak on Wednesday.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Written by
Darren Plant

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 60.95%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 16.36%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.97%) and 1-2 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Iceland win it was 1-0 (5.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.