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Belenenses
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 17
Feb 4, 2021 at 7pm UK
Estádio do Restelo
Porto

Belenenses
0 - 0
Porto


Calila (4'), Sithole (14'), Silva (73')
FT

Preview: Belenenses vs. Porto - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Primeira Liga clash between Belenenses and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Belenenses welcome Porto to the Estadio do Restelo on Thursday evening, with the hosts aiming to bounce back from last weekend's Primeira Liga defeat.

Meanwhile, the visitors have put together an impressive run of form which is keeping them in touch with title challengers and current table toppers Sporting Lisbon.


Match preview

Porto head coach Sergio Conceicao pictured on November 3, 2020© Reuters

Porto claimed their seventh home victory of the campaign as goals from Luis Diaz and Evanilson sealed a 2-0 home win against Rio Ave on Monday evening.

Sergio Conceicao's side have responded well since their early season wobble and are now proving that they are strong enough to retain their title.

After a shaky start which saw them win just three of their opening six matches, the Dragons have since won nine of their last 10 league games, drawing the other match at home to rivals Benfica.

Porto head into their fixture with Belenenses unbeaten in their previous five matches against them, comfortably winning their last encounter 5-0 in July 2020.

With games against Braga and Sporting Lisbon later this month, securing three points on Thursday will be important in their quest to claim their 30th top-flight title.

Belenenses' Miguel Cardoso celebrates scoring their first goal with Afonso Gamelas in December 2020© Reuters

Belenenses were unable to build on their 2-0 win over Tondela at the end of last month, as they were defeated away at Santa Clara on Monday evening.

Petit's side continue to struggle away from home. They have lost their last four matches on the road and scored just once in their eight away league games this season, the fewest of any side in the division.

O Belem have won just three of their 16 Primeira Liga games so far this campaign, with only one of those occurring in their last seven fixtures. This run has seen them slip to 14th in the table, just two points above the bottom two.

However, with just six points separating bottom of the table and eighth place, Belenenses will be aware that a few positive results can pull them away from a relegation battle.

Even though the form of Petit's side leaves a little to be desired, they can take confidence into their clash with Porto, as they have picked up five points from their last four home matches against them, including a 1-1 draw earned last season.

Causing an upset on Thursday evening and claiming all three points could move Belenenses up as high as eighth in the table, five points above the relegation zone.

Belenenses Primeira Liga form: LDLLWL
Belenenses form (all competitions): LWLWLL

Porto Primeira Liga form: WWWDWW
Porto form (all competitions): WDLWWW


Team News

Porto's Antonio Martinez celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates in January 2021© Reuters

Belenenses boss Petit is likely to persist with the 3-4-3 formation which he has used throughout this campaign.

Mateo Cassierra, who scored in their last win against Tondela, is set to remain up front alongside Miguel Cardoso and Silvestre Varela.

Porto were one of several Portuguese sides to have experienced a coronavirus outbreak over the last month which has sidelined a number of their first-team players.

Midfielder Romario Baro and Joao Mario are both to remain in self-isolation but could be back for the Dragons as early as next week.

Experienced central defender Ivan Marcano, who is yet to feature this season due to an anterior cruciate ligament injury, remains unavailable for selection.

Belenenses possible starting lineup:
Kritsyuk; Cafu, Henrique, Ribeiro; Esgaio, Taira, Ramires, Lima; Cardoso, Cassierra, Varela

Porto possible starting lineup:
Marchesin; Manafa, Pepe, Mbemba, Sanusi; Corona, Uribe, Oliveira, Diaz; Marega, Taremi


SM words green background

We say: Belenenses 0-2 Porto

Belenenses have claimed nine of their 15 Primeira Liga points on home soil this campaign and will believe that they can cause an upset against the reigning champions. However, with Porto in such impressive form, there is little to suggest that Thursday's match will be anything other than a routine away win.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Away Win:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 72.49%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 8.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 15.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (15.4%) and 0-3 (10.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.43%), while for a Belenenses win it was 1-0 (4.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.


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Sporting Lisbon's Pedro Goncalves celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates in January 2021
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