Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsberger win with a probability of 37.66%. A win for Grazer AK had a probability of 37.11% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsberger win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Grazer AK win was 0-1 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wolfsberger would win this match.