America Mineiro will put a nine-match unbeaten run at home in league play on the line this Thursday as they wrap up the domestic campaign with a fixture against Sao Paulo from Estadio Raimundo Sampaio.
Coelho come into this contest unbeaten in their previous three matches and knowing that a single point would assure their place in the Copa Sudamericana next season, while Tricolor Paulista will need at least a point themselves and some help to surpass Internacional for 12th in the table and a spot in that competition.
Match preview
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Out of all the newly promoted teams to join the Brazilian top flight this year, America have been perhaps the least talked about, which is a good thing as they have never been in danger of relegation, traditionally sitting right around the middle of the pack.
Marquinhos Santos has relied heavily on his midfielders, who have worked tirelessly to win balls deep in their end and help their back four, having not conceded in back-to-back encounters, while no one has been able to score against them at home since mid-November.
The club from Belo Horizonte are well-organised and disciplined and have been throughout most of their matches, while rarely overcommitting with their challenges.
Since September, they have only conceded multiple goals in three domestic fixtures, while they have been able to find the back of the net at least twice in eight different matches over that stretch.
They have been able to stick to their game plan by being patient and waiting for the right moments to attack, allowing only two first-half goals in their last 11 matches, which can explain why Coelho only suffered two defeats in that time while winning five times.
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With one match remaining, Sao Paulo need to do everything possible to pick up three points on Thursday, but even that might not be enough to qualify them for the Copa Sudamericana next year.
On Monday, they got the start that Rogerio Ceni was hoping for, taking the lead after five minutes in a 3-1 win over Juventude for a second successive victory at home.
Consistency has not been their strong suit in 2021, and unfortunately, it is why they are at risk of missing out on that tournament next year, having failed to win consecutive league contests since August.
Over their previous 15 league campaigns, they have only finished in the bottom half of the standings once (in 2017), and without a victory in their final encounter this week, they will end the year below that line.
If they fail to come away with three points in this match, it would be the first time that this club have finished a domestic campaign with fewer than 50 points since 2001 when there were only 27 matches played.
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Team News
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Matheus Cavichioli has stopped the previous six shots that he has faced, posting consecutive clean sheets as he has 11 on the year, putting him into a tie with Marcos Felipe, Cleiton and Cassio.
There were three changes made to the America starting 11 as Anderson began the game in central defence instead of Ricardo Silva, Juninho Valoura played as an attacking midfielder rather than Ale and Mauro Zarate was the lone striker instead of Fabricio Daniel.
Luciano had a brace for Tricolor Paulista in their 3-1 win over Juve, with the other goal coming courtesy of Jonathan Calleri, while Miranda and Emiliano Rigoni picked up assists.
Walce is out with a cruciate ligament rupture, while Ceni made four changes to the starting 11 on Monday, including Igor Vinicius playing at right-back instead of Leo, Reinaldo began at left-back rather than Gabriel Sara, Liziero took the place of Martin Benitez in the midfield and Luciano was inserted into the lineup over Welington.
America Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Cavichioli; Marlon, Bauermann, Sabino, Patric; Kal, Juninho; Azevedo, Ze Ricardo, Ademir; Zarate
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Vinicius, Arboleda, Miranda, Sara; Nestor, Benitez, Gomes; Luciano, Calleri, Rigoni
We say: America Mineiro 1-0 Sao Paulo
By all accounts, America would consider their return to the top flight as a big success, and one reason has been their ability to take advantage of their home field, where they have only conceded once in their previous three encounters.
Except for a 3-0 defeat to Gremio, Sao Paulo have been able to keep their road matches relatively close, but their attention seems to be placed solely on defending in those games while forgetting that you need to take a couple of chances moving forward to win.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 49.21%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 24.75%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.41%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (8.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.
