A World Cup 2022 qualifying dead rubber will take place in Group I on Monday, as two eliminated sides in Albania and Andorra will go head-to-head on the final matchday.
The visitors cannot finish any higher or lower than fifth, while Edoardo Reja's men will seek the consolation prize of a third-placed ranking.
Match preview
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Four yellow cards, two injuries and five goals conceded represented possibly one of the worst first halves in Albania's history on Friday night, and one would have paid good money to be a fly on the wall during Reja's half-time team talk in the thrashing at the hands of England.
Harry Kane bagged a hat-trick while Jordan Henderson and Harry Maguire also found the back of the net in a humiliating 45 minutes for Albania, whose slim hopes of a top-two finish in Group I have now evaporated ahead of the final matchday.
Reja's men can still take the positives from their qualifying campaign, though, as a win on the final day will guarantee them a third-placed finish above Hungary, who are only one point behind but would do extremely well to get the better of second-placed Poland away from home.
The Red and Blacks have now suffered back-to-back defeats in World Cup 2022 qualifying after previously stringing together a three-game winning streak with three clean sheets to boot, but the hosts have a strong chance of ending their campaign on a high note in front of their own supporters.
Reja will certainly be working with a depleted squad as injuries and suspensions ravage his ranks, but they have won five of their last seven games at home across all tournaments and will aim to prove why there is a nine-point chasm separating them from Andorra on Monday.
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Andorra's expected humbling on matchday nine was not quite as emphatic as England's 5-0 thumping of Albania, but Koldo Alvarez's side were still humbled in their own right as Poland ran out comfortable 4-1 winners in front of a 1,000-strong crowd.
After the hosts lost Ricard Fernandez - AKA Cucu - to a red card inside the first minute, Poland struck through Robert Lewandowski and Kamil Jozwiak before Joan Cervos's free kick saw Andorra peg it back to 2-1, but Arkadiusz Milik made it 3-1 before half time and Lewandowski's second of the game ensured a routine win for Poland.
Andorra were fighting an uphill battle even before being forced to play nearly the entire encounter with 10 men, and the visitors will finish fifth in Group I no matter what transpires this week, with a pair of victories over San Marino representing two silver linings in an otherwise dismal qualifying period.
Alvarez's side eased to a 3-0 win over San Marino during their most recent away clash, but they had suffered six consecutive defeats on the road before that and are certainly the underdogs for Monday, even if Albania have lost a plethora of players leading up to the encounter.
An Ermir Lenjani strike handed Albania a 1-0 win over Andorra when the sides locked horns on the opening day back in March, but the visitors can take confidence from their most recent visit to Albanian soil in 2019, which saw the spoils shared in a 2-2 Euro 2020 qualifying battle.
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Team News
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Bookings for Albanian trio Klaus Gjasula, Sokol Cikalleshi and Ardian Ismajli against England have ruled them out of this contest, with all three being cautioned before the 25-minute mark.
Reja also lost Keidi Bare and Marash Kumbulla to injuries in a torrid opening period in the English capital, so his hand will certainly be forced in some areas for the final day.
Qazim Laci and Bekim Balaj will both seek to take advantage of their side's enforced alterations, with Chelsea man Armando Broja still a doubt after his ankle injury kept him out of the 5-0 defeat to England.
Meanwhile, Andorra will be forced into their own change up top due to Cucu's suspension, so Albert Rosas could get the nod alongside Marc Pujol.
Defender Marc Vales was withdrawn through injury in the 4-1 loss, which allows the returning Xavier Vieira to reclaim his rightful place in the middle, while Alex Martinez and Cristian Martinez could provide fresh legs out wide.
Albania possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Hysaj, Dermaku, Mihaj, Veseli, Lenjani; Uzuni, Laci, Ramadani, Bajrami; Balaj
Andorra possible starting lineup:
Alvarez; San Nicolas, Llovera, Alavedra, Cervos; A. Martinez, X. Vieira, Clemente, M. Vieira; Pujol, Rosas
We say: Albania 1-0 Andorra
One would typically back Albania to get the job done in relatively routine fashion with a fully-fit squad, but it should be anything but a walkover on Monday, with Reja's men both low on numbers and confidence.
However, Andorra have proven relatively easy to break down on the road and have selection concerns of their own to contend with, so we expect Albania to restore a sense of pride with a narrow success on the final day.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Albania win with a probability of 59.28%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Andorra had a probability of 18.34%.
The most likely scoreline for an Albania win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.68%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.64%), while for an Andorra win it was 0-1 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Albania in this match.
