Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 49.52%. A win for SV Sandhausen had a probability of 26.72% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.23%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest SV Sandhausen win was 2-1 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.