Sir Ian Botham recently predicted that England would secure a 5-0 win in Australia following their victory over their rivals on British shores this summer.
"I have a lot of respect for Sir Ian Botham, he was a wonderful player and he played a few more Tests than me, but I think he was waffling on a bit there," Hogg told BBC Radio Five Live.
"It's going to be a lot closer than everyone thinks. If you look at the last series, there was only one Test match where England really got away from us and that was at Lord's.
"Other than that, Australia were in all four Test matches and would have won one of them, if it wasn't for the weather."
The first Test gets underway in Brisbane next month.