In a first-place showdown which might also determine who makes the playoffs in the NFC South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers welcome the Carolina Panthers to Raymond James Stadium on New Year's Day.
With two games remaining, a victory for the Bucs would clinch the division, guaranteeing them a postseason berth, while a win for the Panthers would put them in the driver's seat to make the playoffs should they win their final regular season affair as well.
Match preview
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We could be seeing the end of one of the greatest NFL careers on Sunday should the Bucs fail to win this upcoming encounter.
If you had said at the start of the year that this team would be leading its division and in a playoff position at this stage of the season, no one would have doubted it, though not many would have expected it to be such a difficult path to getting there.
In his first season as head coach, Todd Bowles's defence has shone through, allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards a game and yards per attempt.
Their Achilles heel defensively has been an inability to consistently slow down opposing rushing attacks, allowing a 4.5-yard average this season, conceding 173 yards on the ground to the Panthers in a 21-3 loss back in October.
On that occasion, they had a hard time in the passing game, and 10 weeks later, that is still the case, as Tampa had a 71.6 passer rating last weekend against the worst defensive unit through the air, the Arizona Cardinals.
The most important down in football has continuously stalled the offensive series for the Bucs, who only converted six of their 17 third downs versus Arizona and have converted fewer than 50% of those situations over the past five weeks.
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Since the appointment of Steve Wilks as head coach in Carolina, this looks like a different team, winning three of their last four games, putting up 37 points last week in a victory over the Detroit Lions (37-23), the highest total for them in a game all season.
Pass protection was crucial to their success last week, allowing zero sacks for the second time in their previous three home contests, but they have work to do on the road, conceding six in their last two games.
They have not been great in the pass rush this year, tied for 23rd in the league with 31 sacks, but they have done a decent job against the pass, allowing 6.9 yards per attempt and are ranked 12th in yards allowed per catch.
When this team traded their biggest offensive weapon, Christian McCaffrey and released their starting quarterback Baker Mayfield it looked as though they were in rebuilding mode looking ahead to next season, but those moves seem to have unified a team in desperate need of a spark from somewhere.
Running the ball consistently well on offence has been critical to their success in 2022, as the Panthers have not won all season when failing to crack the century mark on the ground.
Carolina have not turned the ball over in any of their last three games and have not tossed an interception in the previous four, which can explain another reason for their dramatic turnaround in recent weeks.
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Team News
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Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady has tossed a pair of interceptions in three consecutive games while also throwing for at least one score in eight successive encounters.
On Christmas Day, he found Rachaad White for a touchdown, his second of the season, while Leonard Fournette led them in the receiving department with nine catches for 90 yards.
Chris Godwin had eight catches for a second successive outing last Sunday, Anthony Nelson picked up their only sack and Mike Edwards put up six tackles, one fewer than Lavonte David.
Rakeem Nunez-Roches missed practice on Wednesday for personal reasons, Tristan Wirfs has a sore ankle, Donovan Smith will be questionable with a problem in his foot and Carlton Davis is unlikely to feature because of a shoulder injury.
The Panthers running attack had themselves quite the day on Saturday as Chuba Hubbard carried the ball 12 times for 125 yards, D'Onta Foreman ran it on 21 occasions for 165 yards and Sam Darnold posted a QB rating of 121.4 against the Lions, hitting DJ Moore for a TD catch.
Brian Burns had a pair of sacks in their last outing, Laviska Shenault has seven catches in his previous three games, while Jeremy Chinn and Shaq Thompson each made five tackles.
Tommy Tremble saw limited practice time on Wednesday due to a hip flexor, Stephen Sullivan took part in full practice despite a sore ankle, Shi Smith has a problem with his foot and Jaycee Horn is out for the season because of a wrist injury.
Head To Head
Overall the Panthers have a 25-19 edge versus Tampa, winning 21-3 back in Week 7 with third-stringer Phillip Walker throwing a pair of touchdown passes and Hubbard running for a score on that occasion.
Tampa won the previous four meetings against Carolina, including 41-17 in January of last season, as Mike Evans caught two TD passes from Brady, Le'Veon Bell had one as well and Scott Miller had a running score.
One of the most memorable encounters between these two occurred in 2012 at Bank of America Stadium, when Josh Freeman threw three touchdown passes, including one to Dallas Clark in overtime, helping Tampa win 27-21.
We say: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17-16 Carolina Panthers
Part of what makes Brady so great is not only his Super Bowl victories and impressive career numbers, but his ability to will his team to victory even when they are struggling so badly.
His determination and thick skin will give the Bucs a chance in this one, and seeing as Carolina are without one of their best cornerbacks, it might be a little easier for Tampa Bay to throw against the Panthers secondary this weekend.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
