In a rematch of the 2013 NFC Championship, the San Francisco 49ers welcome the Seattle Seahawks to Levi's Stadium on Saturday in the Wild Card Round.
San Fran are on a roll, having won their last 10 games, while Seattle managed to claim the final playoff spot in their conference by beating the Los Angeles Rams 19-16 in overtime and getting some help from the Detroit Lions, who defeated the Green Bay Packers 20-16 on Sunday Night Football.
Match preview
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Despite having two quarterbacks out of commission, the 49ers look like the team to beat heading into the postseason, currently on their longest winning run since 1997.
They have scored 30+ points in their last three contests, as their offence under a third-string quarterback finished the regular season fifth in yards per game (365.6).
Kyle Shanahan has been able to count on a stingy defensive unit who are as tough as they come, conceding fewer than 20 points on 14 occasions in the regular season, holding Seattle to under 14 points in both of their encounters in 2022-23.
There were little to no flaws defensively for this unit throughout the regular season as they only allowed 3.3 yards per carry to running backs, along with a +13 turnover differential and only conceding an average of 300.6 yards per game, ranking first in each of those respective categories.
They come into this contest having won eight of their nine home outings and have not lost at Levi's Stadium to an NFC opponent since dropping a 31-17 decision to the Arizona Cardinals on November 7, 2021.
The Niners managed to post at least one touchdown pass in their final eight outings of the regular season, and they ran the ball for over 150 yards in the last five games of the campaign.
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For the ninth time in their previous 11 campaigns, the Seahawks are in the postseason, though it was no walk in the park for them in 2022-23.
After trading nine-time Pro Bowler and Super Bowl-winning quarterback Russell Wilson, then letting six-time All-Pro linebacker Bobby Wagner sign with the Los Angeles Rams, many had written off this team, but as Wilson's replacement, Geno Smith said earlier this season, they didn't write back.
Pete Carroll's side have had difficulty putting up points offensively down the stretch of the season, with fewer than 20 in three of their previous four games, though they have run the ball well of late, with over 100 in each of the last three encounters, including a combined 395 in victories over the New York Jets (23-6) and Rams respectively.
On the opposite side of the ball, it has been a woeful campaign for Seattle in many respects, with the Seahawks allowing a 102.7 rating to running backs this season and giving up a 106.5 rating to tight ends, good for 27th and 24th in the NFL this season.
If there was one area Seattle fared well in defensively, it would be the way they covered wide receivers, holding them to a rate of 78.3 in 2022-23, the second-lowest average in the league.
The Seahawks have won four of their last five contests against NFC West opponents but have not beaten the Niners in San Francisco since October of last season (28-12).
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Team News
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Third-string quarterback Brock Purdy has thrown for two or more touchdowns in six consecutive fixtures behind centre for San Francisco, posting a rating above 100 in four of his previous five starts, George Kittle has at least one TD grab in four straight games, while Christian McCaffrey ran for 108 yards in their Week 15 triumph versus the Seahawks.
Nick Bosa led the NFL in sacks this season with 18.5, as he and Jordan Willis each had one against the Cardinals, George Odum made one interception, while Tashaun Gipson had two.
Deebo Samuel returned to the lineup last week from his injured quadricep, catching two passes for 20 yards, Dre Greenlaw should be available despite a sore back, Aaron Banks has an ankle/knee strain and Jimmy Garoppolo will not be available after hurting his foot at the beginning of December.
Jason Myers was the hero for Seattle last week, kicking the game-winning field goal to give them a chance at the postseason.
Tyler Lockett caught the only touchdown pass thrown by Geno Smith in that outing, and rookie Kenneth Walker has hit the century mark on the ground in each of his last three outings.
DK Metcalf caught seven passes on nine targets for 55 yards when Seattle last faced San Francisco, Quandre Diggs had an interception in the victory over the Rams, Bruce Irvin posted 1.5 sacks, Uchenna Nwosu had half of one, while Boye Mafe and Coby Bryant each had one.
Shelby Harris is questionable due to a sore knee, Xavier Crawford has a hamstring strain, DeeJay Dallas might not be available because of an ankle/quadricep issue and Phil Haynes could also miss this encounter with an ankle injury.
Head To Head
San Fran won both meetings against Seattle this season, as Kittle had a pair of TD catches and McCaffrey ran for a score in mid-December, while Garoppolo had one on the ground, and also found Kyle Juszczyk for another in their 27-7 victory at home in September when Robbie Gould kicked two field goals.
Even though they are 0-2 against the Niners this season, Seattle still lead the overall series 30-19, with their last victory coming at Lumen Field a season ago.
Travis Horner and Adrian Peterson each ran for touchdowns in that encounter and D'Wayne Eskridge had a seven-yard TD grab from Russell Wilson to give Seattle a 30-23 victory.
The only playoff meeting between these two occurred nine seasons ago when Jermaine Kearse caught a fourth-quarter touchdown.
Stephen Hauschka also booted three field goals to give Seattle the NFC title with a 23-17 victory as they went on to capture their only Super Bowl to date.
We say: San Francisco 49ers 38-22 Seattle Seahawks
The Niners have some unfinished business after losing by the narrowest of margins in the NFC Championship Game last season, and there are too many things going their way, both offensively and defensively, for us to believe they will falter on Saturday.
Seattle surprised a lot of people by making the playoffs, and although they have plenty of experience offensively, the Seahawks have made too many mistakes down the stretch of the season, something that the Niners should be able to capitalise on this weekend.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
