Two weeks of hype and preparation comes down to this as the Philadelphia Eagles face the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl on Sunday from State Farm Stadium in Arizona.
It will be the first time since 2018 that the big game features the #1 seeds from each conference, with the Eagles capturing the NFC title thanks to a 31-7 victory over the San Francisco 49ers, while KC avenged their loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game last season, beating them 23-20.
Match preview
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The moment that gridiron fans have waited for all season is nearly here, and for Philadelphia, it will be their first appearance in this game since the 2017 season, when they upset Tom Brady and the New England Patriots with, among other things, the famous Philly Special.
That upset was their first triumph in the Super Bowl in three appearances, and if they come out on top this weekend, it will not be as big of a shock as Philly dominated the NFC for a large portion of the regular season, setting a franchise record for wins (14).
While an early injury to 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy had a massive impact on the Eagles' victory two weeks ago, Philadelphia were outstanding on the defensive side of the ball, posting three quarterback sacks, and holding an offence ranked in the top-five during the regular season to fewer than 100 yards rushing and passing.
In 2022, the Eagles were the third-highest scoring team in the NFL, averaging 28.1 points per game, while they allowed the second-fewest yards per game defensively during the regular season (301.5).
Nick Sirianni had his share of stud defensive linemen and cornerbacks to count upon, as the Eagles led the league in team sacks during the regular season (70) and were third in turnover differential (+8).
Finding open receivers against the Philadelphia secondary will be no walk in the park as the NFC champions gave up the third-lowest passer rating this season (81.6) and were tied for fourth in interceptions (17).
On Sunday, they will be going up against one of the best tight ends in NFL history and will need to be as sharp as we have seen all season, with Philly holding players at that position to an 80.6 rating, the fifth-lowest mark in the league.
Although they dropped two of their final three regular-season affairs, the return of their star quarterback seemed to reinvigorate them in the playoffs as they have outscored their last two opponents by a combined margin of 69-14.
If there was a weakness for them defensively this season, it might have been how poorly they played the run, allowing a 95.2 rating to running backs during the 2022 campaign, though Philly have run the ball efficiently on offence lately, averaging 208 yards-per-game in their two playoff affairs.
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Heading into the AFC Championship Game, many were counting the Chiefs out due to the ankle injury sustained by their starting quarterback and the fact that Bengals QB Joe Burrow was 3-0 versus his counterpart before their most recent match.
Like they have done all season, Kansas City proved us all wrong, posting 357 total yards and holding that dangerous Cincinnati offensive unit to fewer than five yards per play.
Sunday will be their third trip to the Super Bowl in the past four seasons, with KC defeating the Niners in 2019-20 (31-20) but losing in the big a season later versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (31-9).
On the offensive line, Kansas City allowed the third-fewest sacks this season (26), which helped the Chiefs become the most potent offensive unit in the NFL, averaging a league-high 29.2 points per game.
They sacked Burrow five times in the AFC Championship Game, continuing their consistency in that department after a highly productive regular season in which KC registered the second-most team sacks in the NFL (55).
Andy Reid has made the Super Bowl as a head coach on four occasions, winning only once during the 2019 campaign with his Chiefs, while he is a perfect 3-0 against Philly as the KC boss.
The former Eagles head coach who led them to the Super Bowl during the 2004 season fired Sirianni soon after his arrival in Kansas City over a decade ago, but by all accounts, there are no hard feelings between the two.
Like the Eagles, KC had difficulty against the run in 2022, allowing an average of 4.7 yards per carry on run-pass-options (RPO).
They were deadly through the air however, leading the league in passing touchdowns with 41, which was 14 more than the Eagles managed during the regular-season.
Their pass defence has stepped up in a big way this postseason, allowing just two touchdowns through the air and a 72.2 rating, posting three interceptions in its two playoff games.
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Team News
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Eagles defensive end Robert Quinn is dealing with a sprained foot, Cam Jurgens has a sore hip, Lane Johnson is recovering from a groin strain and Landon Dickerson should be available despite an elbow injury.
Super Bowl LVII will be the first to have two black starting quarterbacks in the big game, one of whom will be Jalen Hurts, who was a finalist for NFL MVP and could become one of the few dual threats to win the Lombardi Trophy, with the Eagles pivot rushing for 760 yards this season and tossing a mere six interceptions for a 101.5 rating and 22 touchdowns.
Jason Kelce will be a part of history as well, as he and his younger brother will be the first siblings to face each other in the Super Bowl on opposite teams, and the Eagles centre had another outstanding campaign, allowing only one sack.
In the NFC Championship Game, Miles Sanders had two rushing scores, while Jalen Hurts and Boston Scott each had one, with the latter collecting his third TD on the ground in his last three games.
Haason Reddick had a monster game for Philly against the Niners, registering two sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery as he, Javon Hargrave, Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham all registered double digits for sacks during the regular season.
Their cover unit is among the best in the NFL, with Avonte Maddox, Darius Slay and CJ Gardner-Johnson each holding opposing quarterbacks to a sub-80 rating this season.
The high ankle sprain of Chiefs quarterback and league MVP Patrick Mahomes has been a talking point since he suffered the injury in the Divisional Round, Willie Gay is questionable because of a sore shoulder, Kadarius Toney has an ankle sprain, the concussion sustained by L'Jarius Sneed will be closely monitored, while JuJu Smith-Schuster should be able to go despite a sore knee.
Although his mobility was an issue in the AFC Championship Game, Mahomes still threw for 326 yards with a rating of 101.5, finding Marquez Valdes-Scantling and future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce, brother of Eagles centre Jason, for scores, while Mahomes ran for a first down late in the fourth quarter versus Cincy and was hit out of bounds, setting up a game-winning field goal by Harrison Butker.
Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon and Skyy Moore each had multiple catches in the AFC title game, while Noah Gray was limited to just a single grab for four yards.
Chris Jones was a beast for the Chiefs on the interior line in 2022, with 15.5 sacks during the regular season despite being doubled over 69% of the time, while he registered his first two playoff sacks two weeks ago and Frank Clark had 1.5.
Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson each had an interception against the Bengals, with the latter collecting his second pick of the postseason.
Head To Head
Sunday will only be the 10th meeting between these two clubs, with the Chiefs holding a narrow 5-4 edge in the overall series.
The last three matchups have gone the way of Kansas City as former receiver Tyreek Hill scorched the Philly secondary with three touchdown catches in the previous meeting in September 2021, while Darrel Williams also ran for a score as the Chiefs won 42-30.
Philly last beat the Chiefs in September 2009 in a week three matchup, which they won 34-14 thanks to a touchdown run from former quarterback Kevin Kolb, who also hit DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek for scores and LeSean McCoy had a rushing TD.
In his first return to Philadelphia as the Chiefs' head coach, Andy Reid saw Jamaal Charles run for a touchdown while Ryan Succop booted four field goals to give KC a 16-16 triumph.
We say: Philadelphia Eagles 31-34 Kansas City Chiefs
These teams are evenly matched, each with outstanding offensive units, some pass rushers who can disrupt the rhythm of opposing quarterbacks and a slew of individuals who have stepped up in the postseason.
We believe that the Chiefs' receiving corps is a little bit deeper than what the Eagles can muster, plus Mahomes seems to find ways to consistently excel even against the blitz, so we are giving KC a slight edge.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
