Four teams remain in the quest for the Super Bowl, and championship Sunday begins with the Philadelphia Eagles welcoming the San Francisco 49ers to Lincoln Financial Field in a battle for the NFC crown.
Philly were the #1 seed in their conference during the regular season, and they defeated the New York Giants 38-7 in the Divisional Round, while San Fran was #2 in the NFC, having beaten the Dallas Cowboys 19-12 last Sunday.
Match preview
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Philadelphia are back in the conference championship game for the first time since 2017, and the Eagles showed last Saturday why they were the top team through much of the campaign, dominating the G-men from start to finish.
Part of what made this team such a force during the regular season was their ability to move the ball efficiently and consistently on the ground, ranking third in the NFL for rushing attempts.
Against New York last week, they handed the ball off 44 times, racking up 268 yards, putting them in numerous manageable third-down situations, going 10/14 in that department.
Getting out to an early lead has been a pivotal part of their success throughout the season as the Eagles struggle to contain the run, allowing 4.6 yards per carry, something they do not have to worry about if they can get ahead early and force the Niners to throw the ball.
That may be one of the few concerns that Nick Sirianni has about his defence heading into another all-or-nothing contest, as Philly are among the best in virtually every other defensive category, allowing the fewest yards per game so far in the postseason (227) while they sacked Daniel Jones five times last week and have created at least one interception in four consecutive games.
Forcing their opponents to throw more often would likely play into the Eagles' hand as they have a solid pass rush, ranked second in pressure rating (33.3%) during the regular season with a blitz percentage of 27.2.
Even if they fail to get to the quarterback, Philadelphia have a dependable group of cover men that do not allow you much, conceding the third-lowest passer rating this season (81.6) while also producing the fourth-most interceptions (17) and holding opposing tight ends to the fifth-lowest rating in the NFL throughout the campaign (80.6).
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Coming into the 2022 campaign, the Niners were seeking redemption after narrowly losing to the Los Angeles Rams a season ago in the conference title game.
Their moment to try to right those wrongs is this weekend as they play for the NFC crown for the third time in four seasons.
Kyle Shanahan's team were not as dominant offensively last weekend, scoring fewer than 20 points for the first time since late November, but their defence stepped up, picking off Dak Prescott twice while holding the Cowboys to under 300 total yards.
When you come into this game riding a 12-game winning streak, it is a sign that there are a lot of things working well for San Francisco, one of which would be their ability to plug the running lanes, allowing a league-low 3.3 yards per carry to running backs in 2022, while they have held opposing teams to under 20 points on 14 occasions including the playoffs.
Similar to Philadelphia, the 49ers like to run the ball more often on offence, ranked ninth in rushing attempts this season and 26th for passing attempts, while they failed to throw a touchdown pass last week for only the third time all season.
San Francisco's aerial attack is generally pretty reliable, averaging the second-highest rating through the air in 2022 (102.3) and the fifth-highest yards per catch ratio (12).
They have not won a conference championship game away from home since January 2013, when the Niners defeated the Atlanta Falcons 28-24 inside the Georgia Dome.
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Team News
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Philly QB Jalen Hurts threw for 114 yards and two touchdowns in their blowout victory over the Giants, with Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith each finding the end zone, Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell combined for 202 rushing yards on 29 carries, AJ Brown was quiet with three grabs for 22 yards and Boston Scott has run for a score in back-to-back contests.
The offensive tackles for Philadelphia have a tall task ahead of them this weekend but have fared well during the season, as Lane Johnson has not conceded a sack, Jordan Mailata gave up only six, Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat each had 1.5 sacks against New York, while James Bradberry picked up an interception.
Avonte Maddox was limited at practice this week because of a sore toe, Robert Quinn is expected to play despite a problem in his back and Brandon Graham is probable despite being sick.
For the first time in a long while, Brock Purdy looked ordinary for San Francisco last weekend, going 19/29 for 214 yards and zero touchdowns.
He was, however, aided by some incredible catches from George Kittle, who had five grabs for 95 yards, Christian McCaffrey scored their only touchdown, Deebo Samuel caught four passes for 45 yards and Elijah Mitchell was their leading rusher against the Cowboys with 14 carries for 51 yards.
Mike McGlinchey had a solid campaign along the offensive line, allowing a mere six sacks, Nick Bosa, who led the NFL in sacks during the regular season (18.5), is still trying to register his first of these playoffs, Deommodore Lenoir has an interception in consecutive games as he and Fred Warner each had one versus Dallas, while Charvarius Ward has been outstanding in pass coverage, holding QBs to a 79.3 rating, including 11 passes defended.
Ambry Thomas could be a question mark because of an ankle sprain, Charles Omenihu has an issue with his oblique and Jimmy Garoppolo will not be available due to a foot injury.
Head To Head
These teams have met a total of 35 times, with San Francisco holding the overall edge 20-14-1, winning the last game against them in Philadelphia 17-11 last season as Jauan Jennings had an 11-yard touchdown catch from Garoppolo, while the Niners QB ran for a score and Robbie Gould kicked a field goal.
The previous contest went the Eagles' way in 2020 when Carson Wentz ran for a score and connected with Travis Fulgham for another, while Alex Singleton registered a pick-six to give Philadelphia a 25-20 victory.
Sunday will only be the second time that the Eagles and 49ers meet in the postseason, with the previous matchup taking place in December 1996 as Steve Young ran for a nine-yard score and hit hall-of-fame receiver Jerry Rice for another, while Roy Barker, Tim McDonald and Marquez Pope each had an interception, enabling San Francisco to win 14-0.
We say: Philadelphia Eagles 17-24 San Francisco 49ers
These are two evenly matched teams in every way, and we should see a close game from start to finish. However, the momentum that the Niners are riding at the moment along with their overall experience in these big games has us giving them a slight edge on Sunday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
