Two of the most improved teams in the NFL this season will square off in a matchup with huge playoff implications for the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football at MetLife Stadium.
These teams, who combined to win a mere 10 games total in their previous two campaigns, have captured 13 between them in 2022-23, with New York a game back of the Miami Dolphins for the final AFC playoff spot, while the Jags trail the Tennessee Titans by that same narrow margin in the AFC South.
Match preview
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A team seemingly stuck in mediocrity for a number of years have emerged as a legitimate playoff contender this season.
Robert Saleh has his defence to thank for the turnaround, with that unit currently ranked fourth in the NFL, allowing just 305.4 yards per game, with only the Philadelphia Eagles (293.5) and San Francisco 49ers (286.1) conceding fewer this season.
That unit have remained consistent all season, allowing fewer than 300 total yards in two of their previous three contests. However, they have lost the turnover battle in every one of their games this month, with New York currently on a three-game losing streak.
Their performance offensively has them on the outside looking in regarding the AFC playoff picture running for fewer than 100 total yards in each of their previous two encounters, allowing four sacks to both the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions.
Thursday will be their first game of the season against an AFC South opponent, with New York going 2-0 at home against that division in 2021-22, defeating the Jaguars 26-21 on Boxing Day, while they have not lost at MetLife Stadium to that division since 2018.
A year ago, they only won one of their four December affairs, and the Jets will face a difficult challenge down the stretch of the regular season, with their final three encounters being against teams either in or just outside of the playoff picture (Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks and Miami Dolphins).
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Like the Jets under Saleh, the club from Duval County in Florida have also made great strides under a new head coach in 2022.
In his first season at the controls, Doug Pederson has picked up six wins after 14 games, two more than this franchise accumulated in their previous two campaigns combined.
Not only has the former Super Bowl-winning coach instilled belief within this group, but with three wins in their last four games, Jacksonville are in with a fighting chance to make the postseason.
That scenario was nowhere near possible at this stage of any of their previous four regular-season campaigns, when they finished at the bottom of their division each time.
Lately, they have had a hard time keeping their opponents out of the end zone, conceding 30+ points in two of their previous three outings, but their offence has been sparkling, putting up over 400 yards in back-to-back victories and upsetting the Dallas Cowboys 40-34 in overtime last Sunday, the first victory for them against an NFC opponent since defeating the New York Giants 20-10 at MetLife Stadium to begin the 2018 campaign.
For the Jags, their playoff formula is simple, win, and should they be able to capture their final three games of the season, it would put them in the postseason for the first time since 2017-18 while also giving them their first division title since that same memorable campaign when they made it to the AFC Championship game.
Two of their three victories a season ago came versus AFC East clubs, though the Jags have not won a road contest against that division since defeating the Miami Dolphins 17-7 in December 2018.
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Team News
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After being benched for three games, Zach Wilson started behind centre for the Jets last weekend versus Detroit, throwing for 317 yards, an interception and tossing a pair of touchdowns to CJ Uzomah, while Garrett Wilson led them with four grabs for 98 yards and Zonovan Knight had another difficult outing, averaging 1.8 yards on the ground.
Quincy Williams and Kwon Alexander led them in tackles last weekend with five each, while a field goal miss by Greg Zuerlein proved costly as New York lost 20-17.
Quinnen Williams and Lamarcus Joyner missed their last game because of a hip and calf problem respectively, Mike White sat out with a rib injury and Brandin Echols is not expected to return from an issue in his quadriceps.
Despite throwing an interception and losing a fumble late in the fourth quarter at home to Dallas, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence still managed to throw four touchdown passes versus the Cowboys, three to Zay Jones, Travis Etienne ran for over 100 yards for the first time since a 27-20 triumph over the Las Vegas Raiders at the beginning of November and Rayshawn Jenkins had two interceptions, including a pick-six on Dak Prescott in overtime, giving Jacksonville a massive victory.
Jenkins, along with Foyesade Oluokun, each made nine tackles on Sunday, with the latter leading the NFL in that department this season (156), Josh Allen has a sack in back-to-back contests and Christian Kirk has at least five catches in five of his last six games.
Franchise player Cam Robinson suffered a torn meniscus in the victory over Dallas and is out for the season, meaning second-year player Walker Little is expected to start this weekend, Brandon Scherff has a problem in his abdomen, the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft Travon Walker has not practised since spraining his ankle a couple of weeks ago, Andre Cisco continues to nurse a sore shoulder and Jawaan Taylor should be in the lineup on Thursday despite hurting his hamstring against the Cowboys.
Head To Head
The overall series between these teams is nodded at 8-8, with New York taking the previous contest on Boxing Day 2021, when Wilson ran for a 52-yard touchdown while also hitting Conor McDermott for a one-yard score.
Braxton Berrios electrified the crowd in East Rutherford with a 102-yard kick return TD in the second quarter of that contest as the Jets won 26-21.
Jacksonville won the previous two meetings against the Jets with their former pivot Gardner Minshew hitting Keelan Cole, Chris Conley and DJ Chark for a touchdown, while Josh Lambo booted three field goals helping them to a 29-15 triumph in 2019.
In the closest regular season encounter between both teams, Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire each ran for a TD, and the Jets won 23-20 in 2017 thanks to a field goal by Chandler Catanzaro in overtime.
Probably the biggest game between these two occurred in the 1998 season when they met in the AFC Divisional Round in a game where Vinny Testaverde hit Keyshawn Johnson for a first-quarter touchdown, while the Jets receiver would later run for a score and Curtis Martin had two rushing touchdowns himself, giving New York a 34-24 victory.
We say: New York Jets 20-24 Jacksonville Jaguars
In a matchup of the top two selections in the 2021 NFL draft, the Jags' Trevor Lawrence has grown tremendously in year two, while Zach Wilson has held the Jets back with his poor decision-making.
Jacksonville's injuries on the offensive line are a concern, although the Jets could also be missing some key pass rushers, and we expect the Jags running game will be the difference in this one considering the Jets possess one of the top secondaries in the NFL.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
