The NFL Divisional Round kicks off on Saturday at Arrowhead Stadium as the Kansas City Chiefs have a chance to punch their ticket into the AFC Championship Game for a fifth successive campaign when they face the Jacksonville Jaguars.
KC had a bye last week and will be facing a Jags team fresh off an emotional high in the Wild Card Round when they erased a 27-point deficit, defeating the Los Angeles Chargers 31-30.
Match preview
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It is back to business for Andy Reid and the Chiefs, who have not lost in the Divisional Round since the 2016-17 campaign.
Offensively in 2022-23, this unit looked even more potent than we have seen in past seasons, if that is even possible, sitting first in the league regarding points and yards per game while averaging the most passing yards during the regular season.
They are a tough team to contain, as anyone who plays against them will tell you, plus, they usually make their drives count, ending the regular season with the second-best red zone offence along with the second-best conversion rate on third down.
During the regular season, their defence lived and died with its pass rush and more often than not, that helped take their defensive unit off the field, registering the second-most team sacks (55) throughout the 2022 campaign.
When they failed to reach the quarterback in time, though, they showed their vulnerabilities, allowing 33 passing touchdowns this season, the most in the NFL, and a 95.3 rating to opposing pivots.
In previous years, the key to beating the Chiefs was to run the ball and eat up the clock, but this season that has not been so easy as KC have allowed fewer than five yards per carry to running backs.
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Wild Card weekend in Duval County last Saturday fittingly ended with a wild finish as the Jaguars completed the third-largest comeback in NFL playoff history.
Everything that could have gone wrong for this young team in the opening half did last week as they turned the ball over five times and could not create one themselves.
Veteran head coach Doug Pederson stuck with the game plan in the second half, however, and it eventually paid off as Jacksonville took advantage of an undisciplined Chargers team, while a gutsy two-point conversion went their way, allowing them to drive down the field and eventually kick the game-winning field goal.
The Jags offensive line has been sparkling most of the season, facing a mere 18.4% pressure rating versus LA, while they took the fifth-fewest sacks in the regular season (28).
After only putting up 19 yards rushing against the Tennessee Titans a couple of weeks ago, they got the ground game back on track last Saturday, racking up 117 total yards, including a critical carry on fourth down, which enabled them to win.
While their passing attack has been outstanding throughout the campaign, pass coverage continues to plague its secondary, with Jacksonville allowing a 119.3 rating to tight ends during the regular season, the third-worst mark in the NFL.
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Team News
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Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a leading candidate for league MVP, breaking the single-season passing yards record which was previously held by Drew Brees.
Mahomes threw for 331 yards with a 129.6 rating, while finding Noah Gray, Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Travis Kelce for touchdowns when they beat Jacksonville 27-17 in Week 10.
Chris Jones ended the regular season tied for third in quarterback sacks (15.5), Nick Bolton had the second-most tackles (180), while Isiah Pacheco averaged 5.1 yards per carry against the Jags earlier this season.
Mecole Hardman is dealing with a pelvic strain, Joe Thuney should be available despite previously spraining his ankle, L'Jarius Sneed has a sore hip and Skyy Moore could be out due to a hand injury.
Trevor Lawrence became the first player in NFL postseason history to throw four interceptions in the opening half last week, but the Jags QB was dynamite in the final two quarters, throwing for 288 yards and four touchdowns in the game, including one to Evan Engram, Marvin Jones, Zay Jones and Christian Kirk.
Travis Etienne ran the ball 20 times for 109 yards versus the Chargers, none more significant than his carry on a fourth and one late in the game, which helped set up Riley Patterson for the game-winning field goal.
Foyesade Oluokun, who led the league in tackles, this season had eight on his own last Saturday, while Jamal Agnew was outstanding on special teams once again, racking up 134 yards on four kick returns.
Luke Fortner saw limited practice time in midweek because of a sore back, Brandon Scherff should be available despite a minor problem with his abdomen, Ross Matiscik is also dealing with back spasms and Kendric Pryor might not be available due to a shoulder injury.
Head To Head
Kansas City have had their way with the Jaguars over the past dozen or so years, winning the last six games against them, dating back to October 2010.
Earlier this season, Willie Gay, George Karlaftis and Khalen Saunders each had at least one sack versus the Jags, while former receiver Sammy Watkins caught three touchdown passes from Mahomes in the opening game for both teams in the 2019-20 campaign, a game that the Chiefs won 40-26.
The closest encounter between these two teams most recently occurred in November 2016 when Cairo Santos booted four field goals, and Albert Wilson caught a 23-yard touchdown pass from Nick Foles, helping KC to a 19-14 triumph.
The last time the Jaguars beat the Chiefs, it was also a nail-bitter, in 2009 as Rashad Jennings and Maurice Jones-Drew both ran for a score, while David Garrard found Mike Sims-Walker for another as Jacksonville won 24-21.
We say: Kansas City Chiefs 34-24 Jacksonville Jaguars
What the Jaguars did last week was nothing short of remarkable, but facing an experienced Chiefs squad with an offence as dynamic and dangerous as any in the league seems like a hill too steep to climb for this resilient Jacksonville team.
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Joel Lefevre
