In a rematch of the AFC Championship Game from last season, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Cincinnati Bengals at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday with a place in Super Bowl LVII at stake.
For the Chiefs, it will be the fifth consecutive time they battle for the conference title after beating the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-20 last Saturday, while the Bengals are back in this spot for the second straight season after putting together a convincing 27-10 victory over the Buffalo Bills.
Match preview
© Reuters
It is a stage that the Chiefs are used to by now, as they have a chance to claim the AFC crown for the third time in the past four seasons.
One of the stories surrounding Kansas City heading into this encounter will be the health of their starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who hurt his ankle in the victory over Jacksonville and was limited to throws in the pocket.
Fortunately, their offensive line stepped up and did not allow a single sack against the Jaguars, while as a team, KC ran for 144 yards.
Throughout the campaign, their defensive line has been a handful, with the second-most sacks during the regular season (55) while registering two or more in four consecutive encounters despite having a low 25.9 blitz percentage.
Their secondary have looked susceptible in pass coverage throughout the season, but they had an impressive showing in the Divisional Round, holding Jags QB Trevor Lawrence to a 74.4 rating while allowing a mere 5.6 yards per attempt.
Their biggest weakness last weekend was on special teams, as they gave up an average of 43.7 yards per return to Jamal Agnew on three attempts, forcing their defence to dig in and make some big stops.
Andy Reid is no stranger to these conference title fixtures, going 3-6 all-time with the Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, respectively.
© Reuters
Cincinnati have been counted out repeatedly over the past couple of seasons, and last Sunday, they proved the critics wrong once again, extending their winning run to 10 consecutive games.
During that streak, the Bengals have been sensational on both sides of the ball, averaging 28.3 points per game offensively and allowing just 18.5 points per contest.
There are plenty of receiving threats up and down this roster, and virtually every one of them was utilised in the snow last week, with eight players catching a pass.
They have been a lot sharper when it comes to protecting their quarterback as well, allowing just one sack versus Buffalo, even though their ace pivot dropped back 37 times.
Zac Taylor seems to have a knack for putting together the perfect game plan to quiet a home crowd as the Bengals coach has captured his last three playoff contests on the road.
Cincy were near the top in numerous defensive categories this season, holding tight ends to the third-lowest rating in the league (79.5), while they allowed a mere 3.9 yards per carry to running backs, the fifth-lowest rating in the NFL.
They have conceded fewer than 20 points in 10 encounters this season, and the Bengals were one of only five teams during the 2022 campaign to hold the Chiefs to 24 points or lower.
- W
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain in the victory over Jacksonville but still threw for 195 yards and two touchdowns, Chad Henne stepped up while his ankle was being worked on, going 5/7 with a TD pass, while Travis Kelce was outstanding yet again, making 14 catches for 98 yards and a pair of scores.
Isiah Pacheco has a 4.9-yard average on the ground this season, and he racked up 95 yards on 12 carries versus the Jags, Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a touchdown catch, while Jerick McKinnon failed to find the end zone last week for the first time in his previous seven encounters.
Jaylen Watson made an incredible one-handed interception against Jacksonville, Chris Jones, who had 15.5 sacks during the regular season, failed to register one last week, while the Chiefs' Orlando Brown has allowed four sacks along the offensive line.
Nick Bolton and L'Jarius Sneed combined to make 12 tackles a week ago, while Derrick Nnadi and Frank Clark each had a sack.
Skyy Moore played in the Divisional Round despite a sore hand, Willie Gay is dealing with a problem in his toe and Mecole Hardman was limited at practice this week due to an injured pelvis.
Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow seems to enjoy the cold, blistery conditions, improving to 8-0 in games where the temperature is below 40 degrees, posting a rating of 101.1 last weekend, Ja'Marr Chase and Hayden Hurst each had a TD grab and Joe Mixon came up big on the ground, rushing 20 times for 105 yards and a score.
Chase and Tee Higgins each had over 1,000 yards receiving during the regular season, Tyler Boyd made just one catch for 23 yards in Orchard Park last week, while Samaje Perine caught five passes.
Mike Hilton and Cam Taylor-Britt registered six tackles apiece to lead the way for Cincinnati last week, with Taylor-Britt also posting an interception, while Vonn Bell had their only sack.
Ted Karras appears to be fully recovered from his sore knee, Tre Flowers took part in full practice on Thursday even though he has a hamstring strain, Joe Bachie is dealing with a foot problem and Alex Cappa is not expected to play due to an ankle injury.
Head To Head
The Bengals have an 18-14 edge overall versus Kansas City, winning the last three meetings against them, with the previous one coming last December when Chris Evans and Higgins each had a TD catch from Burrow, while the Cincinnati QB also ran for one helping the Bengals triumph 27-24.
KC have not beaten the Bengals since 2018 when they trounced them 45-10 in a game that saw Kareem Hunt catch a pair of touchdowns from Mahomes, while Tyreek Hill and Demetrius Harris each had one as well and Ron Parker returned an interception 33 yards for a score.
These teams have only met once in the postseason, but it was a memorable encounter last January when Cincinnati won 27-24.
Kansas City led 21-3 in the second quarter of that contest thanks to touchdown catches from Hill, Kelce and Hardman.
Cincinnati stormed back, though, as Chase and Samaje Perine each had a TD grab, while Evan McPherson booted four field goals, including the game-winner in overtime to send the Bengals into the Super Bowl.
We say: Kansas City Chiefs 23-24 Cincinnati Bengals
There is no denying Mahomes is an incredible athlete, but his ankle sprain might make it easier for the Bengals' defence to force him to drop back, which takes away a significant dimension of what makes the leading candidate for NFL MVP so great.
Joe Burrow is 3-0 in his career versus Mahomes, and with so many receiving weapons at his disposal along with a clutch kicker, it could give Cincinnati a slight edge on Sunday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
