It does not get more dramatic than this as the Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions on Sunday at Lambeau Field in a must-win game for both teams as the regular season comes to a close.
For Green Bay, a win is all they need to return to the postseason, while the Lions need a victory and some help from the Los Angeles Rams, who face the Seattle Seahawks this weekend.
Match preview
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The Packers have faced adversity throughout the campaign but refused to roll over and die, and now their playoff destiny is in their hands.
Matt LaFleur's team came to play last Sunday against their hated rivals, the Minnesota Vikings, posting over 300 yards offensively for a fifth successive contest and, most importantly, winning for the fourth straight time.
A big reason for the Packers' resurgence has been their defensive performances, allowing fewer than 21 points in each of their last four outings while posting three interceptions in back-to-back fixtures.
While they held the Vikings' Dalvin Cook to only 27 yards rushing last week, containing opposing running backs, overall, this season has not been easy, with the Cheeseheads giving up over five yards per carry to them over this campaign.
They did not toss an interception last week for the first time since early December, while their running game managed to bust loose versus Minnesota, putting up 163 yards.
Green Bay have won three of their last four games played at Lambeau, conceding fewer than 20 points in each of their previous two outings.
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Detroit playing meaningful games in January has been virtually unheard of over the years, but the Lions are in with an opportunity this weekend to make the postseason for the first time since 2016.
Their explosive offence has undoubtedly put them in this position, with Detroit putting up over 500 yards last Sunday against the Chicago Bears, the second time they have achieved that feat over this campaign.
The Lions have put up massive offensive numbers throughout the campaign and they often finish their drives with points, averaging 27.1 this season, the fifth-highest total in the NFL, plus a 383.6-yard average per game, which is the third-most in the league.
Try as he might, Dan Campbell, has rarely been able to get his defensive unit to maintain any kind of consistency this season.
The Lions have conceded 4.8 yards per carry against running backs and an average of eight yards per attempt through the air, the worst mark in the NFL.
Turnovers have saved the Lions defensively throughout the campaign, as Detroit created two against Chicago, and they have at least one in all but two games this season.
Part of the reason they can move the ball so efficiently is that they have often managed to stay out of second or third and long situations, averaging over five yards per play in five successive affairs.
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Team News
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Jaire Alexander may not have posted massive numbers statistically a week ago, but the Green Bay cornerback defended Justin Jefferson probably as well as anybody has all season.
He held the league's leading receiver to just one catch for 15 yards on five targets, while Darnell Savage, Jonathan Ford and Adrian Amos each had an interception.
Robert Tonyan had the only touchdown catch for Green Bay versus Minnesota, as Aaron Rodgers threw for 159 yards but got plenty of help from his ground game, with Aaron Jones rushing for 111 yards, while AJ Dillon ran for a score and Allen Lazard had five grabs for 59 yards.
Josiah Degura could be out with a calf strain, Keisean Nixon saw limited practice time this week due to a sore groin, Rudy Ford has an issue with his wrist and knee, while David Bakhtiari is dealing with some pain in his knee and abdomen.
Lions QB Jared Goff had another monstrous passing performance last weekend, posting a 133.5 rating, with three touchdown tosses, two to Brock Wright, while Amon-Ra St. Brown hit the century mark in receptions and DJ Chark has come on strong, collecting 55+ yards receiving in four of his last five games.
Jamaal Williams was outstanding on the ground last week, putting up 144 yards plus a touchdown, Josh Paschal picked up two sacks, Aidan Hutchinson had an interception, while James Houston produced three sacks.
DeShon Elliott was limited at practice this week due to a sore shoulder, Jason Cabinda has an issue with his knee, Frank Ragnow might not be available because of a foot problem, while Evan Brown, Michael Brockers and Kayode Awosika are all questionable with ankle sprains.
Head To Head
Green Bay have a decisive edge in the overall series between these clubs, with a record of 105-74-7, though Detroit have won the previous two meetings, including earlier this season when Kerby Joseph picked off Aaron Rodgers twice, while Shane Zylstra and James Mitchell each caught TD passes from Goff, as the Lions won 15-9.
The Packers have beaten the Lions on three successive occasions at Lambeau, most recently in September 2021, as over 77,000 fans saw Aaron Jones catch three touchdown passes from Rodgers while he also ran for another.
Davante Adams had eight catches for 121 yards in that encounter, while De'Vondre Campbell picked up an interception and 10 solo tackles.
Years ago, these teams met in the AFC Wild Card Round in 1994 as Dorsey Levens ran for a touchdown in the opening quarter while Chris Jacke kicked a pair of field goals helping the Packers hang onto a 16-12 victory.
We say: Green Bay Packers 28-20 Detroit Lions
The Packers have been in these win-or-go-home scenarios many times over the past few seasons, and that should serve them well this weekend against a Detroit squad with not nearly the same kind of big-game experience.
While the Lions have proven to be a formidable offensive unit, we believe that the Green Bay secondary is equally capable of shutting them down, especially with a raucous home crowd in their corner.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
