Two of the top teams in their respective NFL conferences will go toe-to-toe on Sunday as the Buffalo Bills host the Minnesota Vikings at Highmark Stadium.
The AFC East leaders suffered an unexpected defeat a week ago, 20-17, versus the New York Jets, while Minnesota are first in the NFC North after edging the Washington Commanders by that same score in Week 9.
Match preview
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Fresh off what was easily their worst outing of the year, the Bills have a chance to remain unbeaten at home in 2022 and maintain their slender lead atop the division, with the Jets and Miami Dolphins even with them on wins but having played one more game.
Sean McDermott's offensive line allowed five quarterback sacks and eight hits on the MVP frontrunner last week in their defeat to the Jets.
They had their share of struggles in that outing, but they have been stellar for the most part this season, leading the league in total yards (416.4 per game), while also allowing the fourth fewest in the NFL (299.6 a game).
Defensively, they can expect to be tested physically in the running game on Sunday, something they had trouble containing last week, allowing 5.1 yards per carry on 34 attempts.
Rarely have opposing QBs been able to move the ball efficiently against the Bills secondary that have allowed a 76.4 rating on the season, with 11 interceptions and only conceding 6.6 yards per attempt.
The Bills passing attack, meanwhile, has been exceptional for the most part, averaging 292.1 yards per game, good for third in the league, while they have not lost to an NFC opponent since December of last year.
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After two mediocre seasons, the Vikings upper management finally decided enough was enough, making drastic changes at the end of the 2021 campaign, firing long-time head coach Mike Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman.
Rookie head coach Kevin O'Connell has breathed new life into this group, with Minnesota currently running away with the NFC North division with a 7-1 record, four wins better than the Green Bay Packers in second.
They were outstanding against the pass last week, holding Taylor Heinicke to just 149 yards through the air and a QB rating of 77.8 as they won for a sixth consecutive time.
Their secondary has not been that sharp throughout most of the season, allowing a 92.4 passer rating and 11 touchdowns, plus a completion percentage of 67.4.
Along the defensive line, they will need to be even better on Sunday than they already have been in 2022, with 24 sacks so far, plus a 30.7% pressure rating and boasting a 17.2 blitz percentage.
Minnesota have managed to change the momentum of many ball games this season because of their ability to create turnovers, currently with a differential of plus six in that department, good for fourth in the NFL.
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Team News
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Josh Allen dropped down to fourth in the league for passing yards last week, with the Bills QB being held to a 46.8 rating, throwing a pair of interceptions.
Former Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs is third in receiving yards (857), and Jordan Poyer sits second in the NFL with four interceptions.
Dane Jackson will likely face the top Vikings receiver on Sunday, and he has played exceptionally well in the cover game, holding quarterbacks to a 63.5 rating this season, Tremaine Edmunds has a team-high 63 tackles in 2022, while Von Miller and Gregory Rousseau have combined for 12 sacks.
Mitch Morse is dealing with a sore elbow, Kaiir Elam has a sprained ankle, Rodger Saffold has a problem with his back and Spencer Brown could be a game-time decision because of an ankle injury.
Patrick Peterson is expected to go one-on-one with Diggs on Sunday, and the Vikings corner is having another outstanding season, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 60 rating after nine weeks, Dalvin Cook is averaging a solid 4.6 yards per carry and 76 per game, while Kirk Cousins has thrown for 1,999 yards and 13 TDs.
Za'Darius Smith has been dominant when it comes to getting to the quarterback, registering 8.5 sacks in 2022, Harrison Smith has four interceptions, and Justin Jefferson is their go-to pass catcher sitting second in the league for receiving yards with 867.
Dalvin Tomlinson did not practice all week because of a calf strain, while Adam Thielen, Cameron Dantzler and Garrett Bradbury are all dealing with ankle injuries.
Head To Head
These teams have not faced each other since 2018, with the Bills winning the last two contests against Minnesota as Allen ran for two scores and hit Jason Croom for a 26-yard passing TD in a 27-6 victory inside US Bank Stadium the last time out.
Minnesota has an 8-6 edge in the overall series, though it was Buffalo who came out on top in the most entertaining game between the two clubs in 2002 when Peerless Price caught a 48-yard touchdown pass from Drew Bledsoe in overtime, helping the Bills to a 45-39 victory.
We say: Buffalo Bills 32-21 Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings may be pretty good at pressuring quarterbacks, but they have also been susceptible against mobile QBs, allowing an average of 5.2 yards per carry to NFL pivots this year.
Allen is a master at scrambling and turning a sack into a significant gain, and we expect him to beat the Vikings with his legs, while Diggs will relish the opportunity to face the team that let him go a few years ago.
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