With their playoff hopes still alive, the New England Patriots head to State Farm Stadium for Monday Night Football in search of their second victory this season against the NFC when they take on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cards are coming off a bye week and have dropped four of their last five contests, while the Pats remained at 6-6, a game behind the New York Jets for a wildcard berth following a 24-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills last Thursday.
Match preview
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While their previous outing was as close a finish as we have seen from them at home recently, Arizona failed to find that extra gear.
They led by a touchdown in the dying moments before conceding one to Austin Ekeler and then allowed a two-point conversion, as they dropped a 25-24 contest to the Los Angeles Chargers.
It has been that kind of season for Kliff Kingsbury and his team, who have lost five games by a single score, while winding up on the wrong side of the final scoreline in six of their seven home outings this year.
Their secondary has had a miserable time defending the pass, allowing a 101.1 rating, as 69.2% of the throws against them have been completed, while they have conceded 24 touchdown catches.
Those numbers are not great, but it is not nearly as bad as their play against tight ends, allowing a whopping 133.3 rating to them in 2022, including nine touchdowns.
Defensively, the Cards go all in when it comes to bringing the heat, as they are among the league leaders regarding pressure, blitzing 37.5% of the time and producing 23 sacks.
That risky approach has rarely paid off, with Arizona allowing the second-most points per game (26.8), while they rank 28th in overall defence.
Offensively, they are lucky to have such a mobile quarterback, but even that cannot always get them out of trouble, with the Cardinals allowing at least one sack in every game this season.
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In New England, Bill Belichick's offensive unit are having a hard time putting points on the board, generating only 10 in two of their last three games.
Sustaining long drives has not been easy for this offence, with the Pats going 3/12 on third downs last Thursday after converting just 4/15 and 3/10 third downs in their two previous encounters versus the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings respectively.
Their defence has kept them in ball games this season and, in many instances, carried them to victory, as New England have only allowed 18.8 points per game, tied for the seventh-fewest in the NFL, including 311.8 yards per contest.
Besides a 29-0 shutout victory over Detroit Lions in October, the Patriots have had a tough time slowing down NFC offences, conceding 30+ points in each of their last two encounters, both of which resulted in losses to the Chicago Bears (33-14) and Minnesota Vikings (33-26).
They rank relatively high in most critical defensive metrics, including pass coverage, conceding a rating of 81.8 through the air, while they have the second-lowest completion percentage in the league (59.1%).
They possess a solid secondary, and their pass rush is among the best in the league, with 39 sacks this year, the third-most behind the Philadelphia Eagles (42) and Dallas Cowboys (48).
While their primary running back has done a better job at creating positive gains, overall, they have not been great out of the backfield, rushing for fewer than 100 yards in four straight games.
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Team News
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The Cardinals' Kyler Murray has had a year full of ups and downs, tossing seven interceptions and 14 touchdowns with a respectable rating of 87.1, excelling against pressure, putting up a 104.0 rating when defences bring five or more players to blitz.
His primary receiver in Week 12 was Hollywood Brown, who was targeted eight times, making six receptions, James Conner and DeAndre Hopkins each had a touchdown catch in that game, while Cameron Thomas, Zach Allen, JJ Watt and Isaiah Simmons all had a sack.
Charles Washington and Rashaad Coward might not be available on Monday because of chest problems, Byron Murphy is dealing with back pain and Rondale Moore has a groin injury.
When Pats QB Mac Jones faces pressure, he struggles with his accuracy, posting a 76.8 rating this season versus the blitz, Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged over five yards per carry in his last two ball games, Marcus Jones's pick-six was their only touchdown a week ago, while Tyquan Thornton had a 15.5-yard average in that encounter on two catches.
Matthew Judon failed to register a sack last Thursday, but he sits second in the league with 13.5, Jonathan Jones and Josh Uche had six tackles each in that loss to Buffalo, while Davon Godchaux made three tackles in that game and assisted on seven.
Yodny Cajuste saw limited practice time because of a back and calf issue, Isaiah Wynn could miss this game with a problem in his foot, Jakobi Meyers might not be available after sustaining a concussion and Damien Harris has a thigh injury.
Head To Head
Arizona have a chance to even the overall series with the Pats next week, as New England have won eight of the 15 matchups against them, while the Cardinals have triumphed seven times.
The last meeting between these two clubs was in 2020 when the Patriots' James White ran for a pair of scores, and Nick Folk kicked three field goals in a 20-17 victory for the AFC East side.
In the last encounter at State Farm Stadium, former Pats kicker Stephen Gostkowski kicked three field goals, and Chris Hogan caught a 37-yard touchdown pass from Jimmy Garoppolo as New England came away with a 23-21 victory.
It has been over 10 years since the Cards last beat New England when Kevin Kolb threw a touchdown pass to Andre Roberts and ran for another, while Jay Feely converted on two field goals, helping Arizona win 20-18 back in 2012.
We say: Arizona Cardinals 17-24 New England Patriots
Murray has been left hung out to dry more often than not in 2022, and even though he is as good as they come running the ball, the Cards make it too easy for opposing defensive units to get through the line of scrimmage.
The Patriots' offence does not often take advantage of the opportunities that their defence provides them, but we expect New England to have an easier time finding open receivers against one of the worst cover teams in the NFL.
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Joel Lefevre
