Preview: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina - WTA Finals prediction, form, head-to-head

A place in the semi-finals of the WTA Finals is at stake for Elina Svitolina and Aryna Sabalenka who face each other on Friday at the Indian Wells Gardens.

On Wednesday, Svitolina came from behind to defeat Karolina Muchova 3-6 6-2 6-2, while her upcoming Belarusian opponent was unexpectedly beaten by Mirra Andreeva 4-6 0-6.

Match preview

A frustrating season for Sabalenka suffered another hit Wednesday as she was overpowered by her younger opponent for long stretches.

That ended a four-match losing run for her in the group stage of this tournament, leaving her chances of advancing in jeopardy.

Wednesday was one the biggest collapses Sabalenka experienced this year as she was up 4-1 in the opening set before losing the next 11 games.

In the end, Sabalenka seemingly only has herself to blame for her current predicament, making 23 unforced errors with just eight winners in her second match.

In her two matches at the WTA Finals this year, she has won fewer than 45% of her second serves, while winning fewer than 50% of her first ones in match two.

Sabalenka has won her final group outing in this tournament in three of the last four years, defeating Coco Gauff in straight sets a year ago.

Wednesday was all about survival for Elina Svitolina, and she played like it in the second and third sets, keeping her chances of advancing beyond the group stage intact.

Down a set and seemingly nursing an injury, Svitolina showed no quit, winning her first match at this tournament since 2019.

The winner of this event back in 2018 seemed to get better as the match wore on, winning 12 of the last 16 games to take the decisive third set.

With a win on Friday, Svitolina could advance to the semi-finals for the third time in her last three appearances, having won her third group match in those last two instances.

While Svitolina has registered only three aces in her two WTA Finals matches this year, she has given up just five herself.

Svitolina has been incredibly resilient in this event, winning four of her last five WTA Finals affairs when losing the opening set.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First match: vs. Karlolina Muchova 7-6 (7-2) 7-5

Second match: vs. Mirra Andreeva 4-6 0-6

Elina Svitolina:

First match: vs. Mirra Andreeva 4-6 0-6

Second match: vs. Karolina Muchova 3-6 6-2 6-2

Head To Head

Wuhan Open (2018) - Round of 32: Sabalenka wins 6-4 2-6 6-1

Internationaux de Strasbourg (2020) - Semi-finals: Svitolina wins 6-2 4-6 6-4

French Open (2023) - Quarter-finals: Sabalenka wins 6-4 6-4

Italian Open (2024) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 4-6 6-1 7-6

Cincinnati Open (2024) - Round of 16: Sabalenka wins 7-5 6-2

Madrid Open (2025) - Semi-finals: Sabalenka wins 6-3 7-5

Australian Open (2026) - Semi-finals: Sabalenka wins 6-2 6-3

The history between Sabalenka and Svitolina dates back to 2018, when Sabalenka took the first head-to-head meeting between them, winning 74% of her serves at the Wuhan Open.

In France two years later, Svitolina won a match which went the distance, hitting just two double faults, and collecting six break points.

The next time they met in France at Roland Garros, Sabalenka regained the series lead, winning 82% of her second serves and collecting 35 receiving points.

She won again in Italy the following year, converting six of her seven break-point opportunities with just one double fault.

In Cincinnati, Sabalenka collected another straight-sets victory, winning 74% of her first and second serves to advance from that match.

The following year they met in the Spanish capital, and it was the Belarusian winning 74% of her first serves with four break points for another triumph.

The last time they met was in the first Grand Slam of this year in Australia when Sabalenka won 71% of her second serves to take that match.

We say: Svitolina to win in two sets

There is little turnaround time for Sabalenka, who appears to be psychologically beaten down right now, which is why we project Svitolina will triumph.