Preview: Wimbledon: Naomi Osaka vs. Karolina Muchova - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

About a fortnight after their Bad Homburg final, first-time Wimbledon quarter-finalist Naomi Osaka takes on Karolina Muchova for a place in the semi-final.

Osaka impressively took down world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka for her first Championships win on Centre Court, while Muchova beat compatriot and 2024 champion Barbora Krejcikova to advance to a third last-eight match at the All England Club.

Match preview

Osaka has never been fond of the grass, but this year has shown the former No 1 ranked player what is possible on the surface.

Reaching her first tour-level title match on the surface last month in Bad Homburg, before a foot injury forced a retirement, the Japanese superstar has carried that momentum into her sixth appearance at the Championships, where she had previously never played a fourth-round match before this year.

The four-time Grand Slam champion has gone one step further, with the 28-year-old reeling off four more grass-court wins over Elsa Jacquemot, Anastasia Gasanova, Daria Kasatkina and Sabalenka, the latter of which ended her long wait for a Centre Court win at SW19.

Now into her second quarter-final at a Major since returning from the birth of her daughter Shai, the seven-time WTA champion aims to match last year's semi-final run at the US Open.

Osaka heads into another quarter-final fresh off becoming the first player since Victoria Azarenka in 2020 to beat Sabalenka in straight sets at a Slam, and she now aims to right the wrongs of her Bad Homburg misfortune by getting her revenge against Muchova.

The Czech star's game has always been suited to the grass, with her variety and change of pace ostensibly giving her an edge; however, physical limitations have meant that the three-time WTA titleholder has failed to build on a strong start to her Wimbledon career.

Muchova made the quarter-finals in 2019 and 2021, but has since exited in four consecutive tournament openers, a losing run she has now halted, and then some.

The 29-year-old has notched eight consecutive grass-court wins since losing to Madison Keys in Berlin, including one over Osaka to clinch only the third tour-level title of her career.

While Muchova had sauntered through the draw in the first three rounds, Sunday presented the two-time quarter-finalist's first scare, though she came through after responding to losing steam in set two to beat 2024 champion Krejcikova 7-5, 5-7, 6-3.

Having suffered straight-set losses to Elina Svitolina and Angelique Kerber in 2019 and 2021, the world No 9 aims to be third-time lucky by beating Osaka in a rematch of their Bad Homburg title match.

Tournament so far

Naomi Osaka

First round: vs. Elsa Jacquemot 6-1 7-5

Second round: vs. Anastasia Gasanova 6-3 6-2

Third round: vs. Daria Kasatkina 6-1 6-3

Fourth round: vs. Aryna Sabalenka 6-2 7-6(2)

Karolina Muchova

First round: vs. Anastasia Zakharova 6-3 6-2

Second round: vs. Zhang Shuai 6-3 6-2

Third round: vs. Mananchaya Sawangkaew 6-2 7-6(1)

Fourth round: vs. Barbora Krejcikova 7-5 5-7 6-3

Head To Head

Bad Homburg Open (2026) - Final: Muchova 6-1 1-0 ret.

US Open (2025) - Quarter-final: Osaka 6-4 7-6(3)

Australian Open (2025) - Second round: Osaka 1-6 6-1 6-3

US Open (2024) - Second round: Muchova 6-3 7-6(5)

Madrid Open (2021) - Round of 32: Muchova 6-4 3-6 6-1

Cincinnati (2020) - Round of 32: Osaka 6-7(5) 6-4 6-2

Osaka and Muchova have faced off four times on the tour since the Japanese star's return, splitting those meetings, just as they had done in both matchups before her hiatus.

Although a foot injury halted their first encounter on grass, Osaka leads 3-2 across other surfaces, as well as in Grand Slam meetings.

While Muchova got the better of the four-time Major champion in the 2024 US Open second round, the seven-time WTA champion was victorious in last year's matchups in Australia and the United States.

However, it remains to be seen if she repeats the feat in the players' first meeting at a Slam outside of hard courts.

We say: Osaka to win in three sets

Fresh off beating top seed Sabalenka, Osaka is backed to ride the confidence of a stunning serving performance to inflict another Grand Slam defeat on the Czech player and advance to a first Wimbledon semi-final.