Preview:WTA Finals: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Coco Gauff aims to beat Aryna Sabalenka for the seventh time on the women’s tour in Thursday’s decisive WTA Finals match in the Steffi Graf group.

The world No. 3 responded to her loss to Jessica Pegula by defeating Jasmine Paolini in straight sets, and she will need to perform at an even higher level to beat Sabalenka in a rematch of this year’s French Open final, which the American won in straight sets.

Match preview

Gauff may be well-versed in winning ugly, but the American No. 1 will undoubtedly prefer playing as well as she did on Tuesday, when she beat Paolini in just over an hour.

It took 78 minutes to get the better of the Italian player, 6-3, 6-2, keeping her dream of consecutive triumphs in Riyadh alive after winning the title 12 months ago.

Having double-faulted 17 times in her tournament opener, the 21-year-old reduced the errors to three on her serve in match two against the out-of-sorts and seemingly fatigued Paolini, who is also competing in the doubles event.

Tuesday's victory was Gauff's 48th of 2025, improving to 48-15 for the season, and the 21-year-old strives for a 49th at Sabalenka's expense.

With the latest victory marking the American star's 10th over a top 10 player and 33rd overall, the No. 3 seed's adeptness against the tour's best players stands her in good stead against the world No. 1 and the best hard-court player on the women's tour.

Previous victories over Sabalenka include two Grand Slam finals, either side of a year-end win over the Belarusian 12 months ago in Riyadh, a clear reminder that she has nothing to fear on Thursday.

Fearless exemplifies the qualities of the world No. 1 more than most, and the top seed gained some revenge over Pegula in Tuesday’s showdown, although it was not straightforward.

The American No. 3 has narrowed the gap in recent encounters with Sabalenka, taking the four-time Grand Slam champion to three sets at the US Open, Wuhan and Riyadh.

While the women’s top player has won two of those matches, she has had to fight hard in Flushing and Saudi Arabia; indeed, she must do exactly that on Thursday against an opponent who often brings out her best or worst.

Two of the 27-year-old’s most upsetting defeats have come at the hands of Gauff, who thwarted the Belarusian’s US Open dream in 2023 and did the same in the final in Paris this year, both times forcing the 21-time WTA champion into error-prone performances.

A straight-sets victory over Pegula would have confirmed Sabalenka’s progress to the semi-finals of the year-end tournament, but dropping set two in the 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 success means a showdown with the American No. 1 will decide who advances in what position.

Victory in the final round-robin match would mark the world No. 1's 62nd win of the season, improving her 61-11 record, but Gauff's resilience and desperation to retain her title mean that this battle of fearless players is bound to be tense and thrilling in equal measure.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

Round Robin: vs. Jasmine Paolini 6-3 6-1

Round Robin: vs. Jessica Pegula 6-4 2-6 6-3

Coco Gauff:

Round Robin: vs. Jessica Pegula 3-6 7-6[4] 2-6

Round Robin: vs. Jasmine Paolini 6-3 6-2

Head To Head

French Open (2025) - Final: Gauff 6-7(5) 6-2 6-4

Madrid (2025) - Final: Sabalenka 6-3 7-6(3)

WTA Finals (2024) - Semi-final: Gauff 7-6(4) 6-3

Wuhan Open (2024) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 1-6 6-4 6-4

Australian Open (2024) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 7-6 6-4

US Open (2023) - Final: Gauff 2-6 6-3 6-2

BNP Paribas Open (2023) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 6-4 6-0

National Bank Open (2022) - Third Round: Gauff 7-5 4-6 7-6

Italian Open (2021) - Third Round: Gauff 7-5 6-3

J&T Banka Ostrava Open (2020) - Second Round: Sabalenka 1-6 7-5 7-6

The Top Seed Open (2020) - Second Round: Gauff 7-6 4-6 6-4

Since beating Sabalenka in their opening match five years ago and winning three of their first four encounters, Gauff and the Belarusian's rivalry has ebbed and flowed.

The 21-time WTA champion has since claimed four of the subsequent seven meetings, although she trails 5-6 in their head-to-head ahead of this week's showdown in Riyadh.

Gauff has won two of the most recent three, defeating Sabalenka 12 months ago in Saudi and at the French Open, sandwiched between her loss in the Madrid final in the lead-up to Roland Garros.

Both women are tied at 4-4 in hard-court meetings, further highlighting that very little separates them ahead of their ninth clash on this surface and 12th overall.

We say: Gauff to win in three sets

Thursday's match between Gauff and Sabalenka is highly unpredictable, with both players capable of either outplaying the other or engaging in a tough, gritty contest.

Given the American’s eagerness to keep her hopes of back-to-back wins alive, especially since Pegula is likely to beat Paolini in the other group match, and her history of winning in challenging circumstances against the world No. 1, Gauff is favoured to secure her seventh tour-level victory over the No. 1 seed.