Preview: Indian Wells: Yulia Putintseva vs. Paula Badosa - prediction, form, head-to-head

Returning to the BNP Paribas Open for the first time since 2023, 2021 Indian Wells champion Paula Badosa hopes to avoid her first-ever opening-round exit when she faces Yulia Putintseva on Thursday.

Badosa's misfortunes, particularly with injuries, have continued into 2026, putting the former world No. 2 at risk of elimination at this early stage of the tournament.

Match preview

After working her way back into the top 10 last year, Badosa encountered further injury setbacks, which have contributed to her decline in the rankings.

In normal circumstances, she would typically receive a bye at this stage, but, currently ranked No. 106 on the women’s tour, she does not benefit from this privilege.

Instead, she must navigate a potentially tricky opponent in Putintseva, and, despite having a significant winning record in their matchups, Badosa's lack of recent competitive action could be detrimental as they compete in the desert.

Badosa enters Thursday’s contest with an impressive 11-3 record at this tournament, having never been eliminated before the third round, with her earliest exit occurring in 2023.

This swift dismissal followed her debut victory in Indian Wells in 2021 and a semi-final run during her title defence the following year.

Given her positive results in Indian Wells — where her 85% win rate ranks higher than in any WTA 1000 tournament — it will be intriguing to see whether her evident lack of match sharpness and rhythm following injury setbacks in 2026 will hinder the 28-year-old on Thursday.

Putintseva likely enters the round-one encounter as the favourite, considering uncertainties surrounding Badosa's form and her modest 8-5 record in 2026.

However, keen observers might view the former world No. 20 through a similar lens, as the 31-year-old had not played any tennis since the fourth round of the Australian Open in January, before returning at last week's event in Merida.

Having been defeated by qualifier Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva in a match that ebbed and flowed, the Kazakhstani player does not enter her third WTA 1000 tournament with much competitive action to draw upon either.

Nonetheless, she can take encouragement from a commendable start to 2026, during which she won eight of her opening 11 matches, even if a few of those victories were in qualifying rounds in Brisbane and Adelaide.

Drawing on her overall 8-5 record for the season thus far, the 31-year-old aims for a win that could help improve her rather unremarkable career record in California, where she has only managed to win 11 matches across as many main draw involvements.

Head To Head

Cincinnati (2024) - Round of 16: Badosa 6-4 6-4

French Open (2024) - Second round: Badosa 4-6 6-1 7-5

National Bank Open (2022) - Round of 32: Putintseva 7-5 1-0 ret

Miami (2022) - Round of 32: Badosa 6-3 6-2

Wimbledon (2021) - Round of 64: Badosa 6-4 6-1

Although these players have not faced each other since 2024, a notable statistic is Badosa's record of four wins to Putintseva's one, with victories secured across all surfaces, including the lawns at Wimbledon, as well as the hardcourts in Miami and at the French Open.

The Kazakhstani's sole victory came in Toronto four years ago when Badosa retired injured while trailing in the second set.

Of their completed matches, only one has gone to a deciding set, with Badosa securing a comeback victory on the clay at Roland Garros in 2024.

We say: Badosa to win in two sets

Putintseva will likely seek to exploit her opponent’s physical uncertainties on Thursday in an attempt to inflict Badosa's first tournament-opening defeat at this event.

However, Badosa has consistently performed well at Indian Wells, and her 85% win rate is hard to overlook.

If her body holds out, we anticipate the former world No. 2 to overcome her competitive rust and secure another victory in straight sets.