Preview: French Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Fresh from becoming the lowest-ranked player to make the Roland Garros semi-final, Matteo Arnaldi faces countryman Flavio Cobolli in an all-Italian last-four contest.

Having played the most tennis of any of the quarter-finalists, Arnaldi was a beneficiary of Matteo Berrettini’s hip injury on Wednesday, thus setting up a third ATP Tour meeting with Cobolli, who secured a comeback win over Felix Auger-Aliassime in the earlier quarter-final.

Match preview

Arnaldi went into his last-eight match with compatriot Berrettini after having had nearly 18 hours on court en route to reaching the quarters.

While he led the former world No. 6 7-5, 5-2 before the match ended early, the 25-year-old added two more hours of competitive tennis, bringing him close to the 20-hour mark ahead of the semis.

It remains to be seen just how much he has left in the tank heading into Friday's contest with his friend and countryman in the battle of the two first-time Grand Slam semi-finalists.

Nonetheless, the lowest-ranked player since Filip Dewulf in 1997 to reach this stage is undoubtedly riding the wave of the momentum of this winning streak in the French capital.

After injury slowed his start to the year, winning the Challenger title in Cagliari in the lead-up to the French Open gave the world No. 104 much-needed confidence ahead of the second Slam of 2026.

While he may not have foreseen making this deep a run in the French capital, Arnaldi now enters Friday aware that one more win will put him in the championship match of a big event for the first time in his career.

Like Arnaldi, Cobolli knows he is so close to competing in a Grand Slam final for the very first time.

If anyone had told Cobolli that he would be the highest-ranked Italian player left in the draw in the quarters and semis, he may have scoffed at that, given Jannik Sinner's pre-tournament form.

However, the Madrid and Munich quarter-finalist has gone one step further in Paris, benefitting from the top seed's second-round exit and playing on the seemingly kinder half of the draw to reach the semis.

Despite those circumstances, it would be unfair to put the 24-year-old's run down to the luck of the draw alone.

Cobolli has defeated Learner Tien — a top-20 player, though one still finding his feet on clay — and Auger-Aliassime, who was ostensibly meant to play better in Wednesday's conditions.

The Canadian took the first set while the roof was open and should have benefitted from its closure at the end of the opener, only for Cobolli's level to rise immensely to take sets two, three and four to claim a 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 success.

By beating the Canadian No. 1, the 24-year-old recorded his fourth top-10 victory, all of which have been on clay, thus emulating Dominic Thiem (2016).

Now, the Italian No. 3 seeks one victory against the former world No. 30 to have a shot at the biggest day in his career.

Tournament so far

Matteo Arnaldi:

First round: vs. Tallon Griekspoor 6-7(9) 6-3 7-6(6) 6-3

Second round: vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-6(2) 5-7 6-3 6-2

Third round: vs. Raphael Collignon 6-4 6-7(5) 5-7 6-4 7-6(4)

Fourth round: vs. Frances Tiafoe 7-6(5) 6-7(5) 3-6 7-6(3) 6-4

Quarter-final: vs. Matteo Berrettini 7-5 5-2 ret.

Flavio Cobolli:

First round: vs. Andrea Pellegrino 6-4 7-6(4) 6-3

Second round: vs. Wu Yibing 6-4 6-4 6-4

Third round: vs. Learner Tien 6-2 6-2 6-3

Fourth round: vs. Zachary Svajda 6-2 6-3 6-7(3) 7-6(5)

Quarter-final: vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4

Head To Head

French Open (2025) - Second round: Cobolli 6-3 6-3 6-7(6) 6-1

Umag (2023) - Round of 16: Arnaldi 6-3 7-6(5)

Cobolli and Arnaldi are tied at 1-1 heading into their third meeting on the men's tour, with Friday marking their second Roland Garros meeting.

Cobolli took down his countryman in four sets 12 months ago, securing a rather comfortable second-round victory, two years after losing in two tight sets in Umag.

Interestingly, all their meetings on the ATP and Challenger Tours have been on clay, with Arnaldi winning two of the three match-ups, although every match went the distance.

While Cobolli is not a top-10 player, Arnaldi securing four of his six top-10 wins on clay (six clay-court wins over the top 20) underlines his competence on the surface and his giant-killing qualities when it all comes together.

We say: Cobolli to win in five sets

Cobolli's talent is unmistakable, especially when he is confident and striking the ball with his usual ferocity.

Still, fluctuations in his game mean that the 10th seed is unlikely to have it all his way against the battle-hardened Arnaldi.

Nonetheless, if the second-highest seed left in the draw plays at a high level long enough on Friday, a maiden Grand Slam final is likely assured.

It may not happen in straight sets or even four, but we back Cobolli to ultimately outlast his compatriot set up Sunday's final against Jakub Mensik or Alexander Zverev.