Preview: Lorenzo Sonego vs. Tommy Paul- French Open prediction, form, head-to-head

Two players fresh off opening round scares at the French Open will seek a spot in the third round of the men’s draw on Wednesday as Lorenzo Sonego takes on Tommy Paul.

Over the weekend, Sonego won a five-set thriller against Frenchman Pierre-Hughes Herbert 7-6 (7-3) 5-7 6-2 1-6 6-4, while his upcoming American opponents got past Rinky Hijikata 4-6 6-3 7-5 6-4.

Match preview

It was a gruelling and physically demanding opening encounter for Lorenzo Sonego at Roland-Garros, with the Italian needing over four hours to dispose of the home crowd fan favourite.

In the end, the Italian won 61% of his first serves in the match along with the only tie break, which proved decisive.

He also converted five break points while winning 59 of his return points throughout the marathon match on Sunday.

A victory on Wednesday would propel him into the third round of this event for the first time since 2023, when he made it all the way to the last 16.

For the year, he has captured over 60% of his service games and saved over half of his break points on clay.

That said, he has converted fewer than 30% of his break point opportunities on clay in 2026 and won less than 20% of his return games on that surface.

Despite a slow start in his opener, Tommy Paul came on strong as the match wore on, hitting 13 aces against his Aussie opponent.

Meanwhile, he only hit three double faults in the four-set affair and converted five of his break-point opportunities in the match.

Last year’s quarter-finalist at this tournament has advanced beyond round two in each of his previous two French Open appearances, ousting Hungarian Marton Fucsovics in five sets at this stage in 2025.

In 11 straight Grand Slam singles events, he has made it to the second round or further, advancing beyond that phase on 10 of those occasions.

On clay this year, he has managed to win 77% of his service games while also winning nearly 70% of his first-serve points over that span.

He has converted over 40% of his break point opportunities on clay in 2026 and won more than 40% of his return points as well.

Tournament so far

Lorenzo Sonego:

First round: vs. Pierre-Hughes Herbet 7-6 (7-3) 5-7 6-2 1-6 6-4

Tommy Paul:

First round: vs. Rinky Hijikata 4-6 6-3 7-5 6-4

Head To Head

Rotterdam Open (2021) - Round of 32: Paul wins 6-4 7-6

Cincinnati Open (2021) - Round of 32: Sonego wins 7-6 6-2

US Open (2024) - First Round: Paul 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2

The first meeting between these two in the Netherlands saw Paul overcome three double faults and convert three break points to advance.

Later that year in Paul’s home country, Sonego evened the head-to-head series thanks to his powerful serve, registering 13 aces while converting all five of his break point opportunities.

Paul won 70% of his first-serve points when they last faced each other at Flushing Meadows, while he was able to rescue 85% of his break points.

We say: Paul to win in four sets

The overall game of Paul has us leaning towards him going through, as he may be a little fresher and has the experience of making a deep run at this event last year.