Most people are familiar with football odds in the United Kingdom, where football betting is hugely popular and heavily advertised.
However, while many people are familiar with football betting odds and understand the basics, many don’t fully understand what odds are. Before looking at how football betting odds are calculated, we need to understand what football odds are and what they represent.
What are football odds, and what do they represent?
In a nutshell, football odds reflect perceived probability. In the UK, the most commonly used odds format is fractional odds. Therefore, when looking at fractional odds, you see a fractional reflection of perceived probability.
Here’s an example:
If you see ‘Manchester United to Win’ available at odds of 13/10, you’re seeing a fractional expression of the oddsmaker’s opinion regarding the probability of an outcome. In this case, the outcome is a Manchester United win.
Here's how that looks using BetVictor's odds calculator:
Why understanding odds calculation matters
OK, you may be reading this and wondering why you need to understand how football betting odds are calculated. Well, you don’t need to. Suppose you’re a casual bettor looking for nothing more than occasional fun without expecting to win. In that case, it’s not really important to understand how football odds are calculated.
However, suppose you’re looking to bet regularly and want to become a more informed bettor, or you intend to maximise your chances of making a profit. In that case, understanding odds calculation is very important.
Understanding how odds are calculated and understanding odds in general can have quite a few positive knock-on effects. These are:
- Understanding bookmaker margins
- Understanding the importance of value
- Helps to form your own odds, which allows to identify value
- Increases your chances of being a successful bettor
Sports betting is tricky. Becoming a successful bettor is incredibly hard to achieve. Still, quite simply, if you want to improve as a bettor, whether you end up coming out in front or not, it’s useful to understand how odds are calculated.
Probability fundamentals
Those wanting to learn about football odds and delve deeper into sports betting analysis need an understanding of probabilities.
As touched on above, football odds are just probabilities, or rather, they are perceived probabilities. We’re talking about the perception of an oddsmaker in terms of the probability of an outcome.
Football odds, be they fractional or decimal, imply probabilities. For example, odds of 2/1 imply a probability of 33.3%. In other words, odds of 2/1 suggest a 33.3% chance of a particular outcome being achieved. If a football team is priced at 2/1 to win, the bookmaker is implying that the team in question has a 33.3% chance of winning the match.
Understanding the implied probability behind the odds available can help bettors to form their own odds, which is essential for finding value, as we’ll discuss below.
First, let’s look at the most common odds formats.
Fractional
In UK football betting, fractional odds are the most common. If you visit the likes of Betfred, William Hill or BoyleSports and you’ll see that all of the available football betting markets display fractional odds as default.
For UK bettors, fractional odds tend to come relatively easily. Using fractional odds, calculating potential returns is straightforward. All you need to know is that the number on the right of the fraction equals the stake, while the number on the left equals the profit.
For example, if the odds are 3/1, you get £3 in profit for every £1 staked in the event of a win. If the odds are 5/1, you get £5 profit for every £1 staked in the event of a win.
Decimal
If you use a betting exchange, such as Betfair, then you’ll come across decimal odds. Of course, if you prefer decimal odds, you can change the odds setting at most online bookmakers. This function is typically available at the bottom of the main page.
Decimal odds represent exactly what fractional odds do; they’re just expressed in decimal format.
Decimal odds, though not the standard for UK bookmakers, are arguably easier to work out than fractional odds. With decimal odds, any potential return will always be the stake multiplied by the odds displayed. For example, if you see decimal odds of 3.00 and you want to bet £10, simply multiply 10 by 3 (= 30).
There are lots of useful odds converters online, so if you’re struggling to understand one type of odds, simply use one of these converters, type in the odds that you’re most familiar with and you’ll see what those odds look like in other formats.
Initial odds creation
How are football odds calculated? Who sets the odds? Well, this is the job of the bookmaker. The bookmaker sets the odds. Of course, nowadays, many online sports betting firms are massive, and they cover a wealth of sporting events, which means that they employ several people to set the odds for different events. These employees are typically known as odds compilers.
Odds compilers set the odds based on various factors before moving those odds according to market activity, such as heavy betting support or a lack of betting support.
Thanks to advancing technology and statistical modelling, odds compiling is more automated than it used to be. Still, the premise remains the same and this is how football betting odds are calculated. Essentially, online sportsbooks have people whose job it is to formulate odds based on a number of relevant factors.
What are the key factors influencing odds calculations?
Oddsmakers will consider various factors when building their odds for any given football match.
Typically, oddsmakers will consider these key factors when setting football odds:
- Recent form
- Injury/team news
- Performances against relevant opposition
- Basic data such as goals scored/conceded
- Underlying data such as expected goals
Mathematical models
We’re now living in a world of automation and highly advanced modelling, which means the odds are set by more than just the bookmaker and their opinion.
Many online sports betting firms use mathematical models and automation to calculate their football odds. The same automation is then used to move the odds according to what the market does, instead of an oddsmaker or trader watching and reacting manually.
Market influences
The setting of football odds is only one piece of the puzzle, so to speak. Once the odds are set, they are not fixed. You may have noticed that odds change. You can see that a particular football bet is priced at odds of 6/4 before returning five minutes later to see the same bet priced at odds of 5/4.
Odds movements occur due to market influences. In other words, supply and demand. For example, the odds will shorten if the demand for a particular bet is high.
Many football markets can be described as two-way football markets. In other words, there are only two sides to the market. Take the ‘Both Teams to Score’ market for example. You have two options, you can either bet on both teams to score, or you can bet that at least one team will fail to score. If one side of this market is in high demand, the odds will decrease, while the other side will drift, meaning that the odds increase. Again, this is merely supply and demand.
Typically, football odds change one way or the other due to market activity. However, this is not the only reason behind changing odds. Factors such as last-minute team news can also result in drastic changes in odds. Let’s say that one team heavily relies on a single player. If this player is declared injured on the day of the game or gets injured in the warm-up, then the odds will be affected.
Bookmaker margins
Earlier in this article, we discussed how bookmakers set odds based on various factors, but the process doesn’t quite end there.
Basically, a bookmaker will ensure that they arrive at a profit by increasing the implied probability of an outcome. In other words, they work out what they believe to be fair odds and then offer shorter odds.
Value
The premise of value is heavily connected to odds calculation, both in football betting and all types of sports betting.
Bettors should look to calculate their odds and compare them with the odds available at various bookmakers, such as bet365 or Betano, to see if value exists. Value exists if your odds are shorter than the odds available.
Getting value for money with football odds is like getting value for money when purchasing an everyday item. If you know that a pint of milk costs £1 but you can get it somewhere for £0.80p, you know you’re getting value for money. Similarly, if your own odds calculations show the odds of a particular football outcome to be shorter than the available odds, you’re getting value for money.
Of course, as touched on above, many factors go into pricing up an event, but whichever way you want to look at it, you should always price events to 100% to formulate your own odds. After all, the probability of any outcome can never be greater than 100%. Bookmakers price events beyond 100% because they are building in a margin. In other words, they win, as explained above.
Which UK bookmakers offer the best odds?
Below is a rundown of the top UK bookmakers known for providing top odds in football markets.
- Bet365: Bet365 consistently ranks among the best for football odds, particularly for major European leagues. It offers competitive odds across a range of football markets, from standard match results to more obscure betting options. Bet365 is especially strong with its competitive in-play betting odds, where its pricing frequently beats competitors by significant margins.
- Betfair: Operating the world's largest betting exchange, Betfair offers unique value opportunities. The exchange platform allows bettors to often find odds 10-20% better than traditional bookmakers. Betfair specialises in offering superior odds for underdogs in football matches, with their exchange prices typically exceeding those of conventional bookmakers by 3-5% on these selections.
- William Hill: William Hill has generous odds on domestic football, particularly for Premier League and Championship matches. Its speciality is providing value in the correct score and goalscorer markets, where their odds frequently exceed industry averages by 2-3%. William Hill constantly has ‘Enhanced Odds' promotions on high-profile matches, providing additional value for regular bettors.
- SkyBet: SkyBet distinguishes itself with top odds in the goals markets, particularly for Over/Under and Both Teams to Score (BTTS) bets. SkyBet's speciality ‘RequestABet' feature often provides better odds on custom bet combinations than competitors' equivalent ‘build-a-bet' options. Their ‘Price Boosts' on popular selections also frequently offer genuine value.
- BetVictor: BetVictor offers some of the best odds across all football markets, specifically on maintaining low margins in the match result markets, where its overround (the total implied probability across all possible outcomes) is among the lowest in the industry. Independent odds comparison sites routinely rate BetVictor as offering the best price on Premier League matches. Their odds calculation models are particularly effective at identifying value in draw outcomes.
Conclusion
Ultimately, odds calculation is essential to football betting, not just for those setting the odds. Any serious bettor should do it.
Moreover, the goal of a serious bettor should be to find value for money, and part of finding value comes from being able to calculate odds.
There are many ways in which a bettor can calculate odds. For some, it’s all about automation and statistical modelling, while for others, it’s more of an art that relies on more than just data and numbers. Perhaps, the goal of odds calculators is to balance art and science? Essentially, you should find odds calculation methods that work for you.
What’s most critical is that you understand the importance of calculating odds and have a way of doing so, as this will help you to not only identify value but also take advantage of value. After all, the bookmakers don’t always get it right with their oddsmaking, and this is where serious or sharp bettors can take advantage.
