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Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 21, 2021 at 1.30am UK
Estadio José Amalfitani
Flamengo

Velez Sarsfield
2 - 3
Flamengo

Janson (21', 54')
Caseres (27'), Martin Lucero (35'), Hoyos (60'), Almada (66'), Galdames (85')
Mancuello (86')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Arao (43'), Barbosa (62' pen.), De Arrascaeta (80')
Henrique (46'), Alves (55'), Batista de Souza (73'), Henrique (83'), Diego (90+3')

Preview: Velez Sarsfield vs. Flamengo - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Velez Sarsfield and Flamengo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Velez Sarsfield kick off their Copa Libertadores campaign on Wednesday when they welcome Flamengo to the Jose Amalfitani.

The hosts are making their first appearance in the tournament since 2014, while the visitors have taken part in each of the last four years.


Match preview

Mauricio Pellegrino, now in charge of Velez Sarsfield, pictured in January 2019© Reuters

Velez Sarsfield have flown out of the blocks in their domestic endeavours, picking up 22 points from their first 10 matches.

This run of form has propelled Mauricio Pellegrino's men to the top of the standings with a six-point cushion over Boca Juniors.

In their last involvement in the competition, El Fortin reached the round of 16 seven years ago when they were eliminated by Nacional Asuncion.

The hosts have a chance to begin their cup run on a high as they go in search of their first continental crown since 1996.

Flamengo are one of the household names in the Copa Libertadores having previously won the tournament twice, most recently two years ago.

Rogerio Ceni's men came out victorious in the Brazilian Super Cup last Sunday when they defeated Palmeiras on penalties.

Since then, the Mengao have not won any of their subsequent two league games, but they are still in second place on the log.

In the meantime, the focus is now on starting their Copa journey with a bang as Wednesday's visitors look to make it into the knockout stages for the fifth year in a row.

Velez Sarsfield form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W

Flamengo form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D



Team News

Flamengo's Gabriel Barbosa was in inspiring form back in 2019 as his nine goals in 12 matches - including a two-goal haul in the final - propelled his side to glory.

Several players from that title-winning team are still around, and that experience could come in handy in the latter stages.

Velez's Agustin Mulet was hauled off with a thigh strain on Tuesday, and he is expected to sit the game out with Federico Mancuello expected to fill in.

Juan Martin Lucero scored within 10 minutes of coming off the bench in his side's last match, and he could be rewarded with a start in this one.

Velez Sarsfield possible starting lineup:
Hoyos; Ortega, Abram, Gianetti, Guidara; Caseres, Mancuello, Almada; Orellano, Centurion, Tarragona

Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Alves; Luis, Caio, Arao, Isla; Gerson, Diego, Ribeiro, De Arrascaeta; Barbosa, Henrique


SM words green background

We say: Velez Sarsfield 0-2 Flamengo

Flamengo are the superior side in terms of squad quality, and we expect that gulf in class to translate into a victory for the visitors, but the hosts have shown enough to suggest that they will be no pushovers.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 48.66%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 28.54% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.54%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 2-1 (6.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Velez Sarsfield vs Flamengo

Velez Sarsfield
20.0%
Draw
10.0%
Flamengo
70.0%
10
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