US Open Cup
Mar 19, 2026 2.00am
Papa Murphy’s Park

Sacramento Republic vs El Farolito - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Sacramento Republic

All competitions

El Farolito

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a El Farolito win with a probability of 41.19%. A win for Sacramento Republic has a probability of 34.1% and a draw has a probability of 24.71%.

The most likely scoreline for a El Farolito win is 0-1 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.06%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Sacramento Republic win is 1-0 (8.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.26%).

Result

Sacramento Republic 34.1% (+0.15)
Draw 24.71% (-0.42)
El Farolito 41.19% (+0.27)

Both Teams to Score: 

48.57% (+1.25)

Goals

Over 1.5 73.37% (+1.57)
Under 1.5 26.63% (-1.57)
Over 2.5 49.24% (+1.93)
Under 2.5 50.76% (-1.93)
Over 3.5 28.53% (+1.81)
Under 3.5 71.47% (-1.80)
Over 4.5 16.87% (+1.32)
Under 4.5 83.13% (-1.32)

First Half Winner

Sacramento Republic 26.77% (+0.49)
Draw 40.82% (-0.26)
El Farolito 32.42% (-0.22)

Team To Score First

Sacramento Republic 44.73% (+0.80)
No Goal 7.7% (-0.62)
El Farolito 47.57% (-0.19)

Corners

Over 8 53.06% (+1.43)
Equal 8 11.46% (-0.10)
Under 8 35.48% (-1.33)
Over 9 41.8% (+1.40)
Equal 9 11.26% (+0.03)
Under 9 46.94% (-1.43)
Over 10.5 31.6% (+1.25)
Under 10.5 68.4% (-1.25)

Sacramento Republic Goals

Over 1.5 33.27% (+1.09)
Under 1.5 66.73% (-1.08)
Over 2.5 13.7% (+0.85)
Under 2.5 86.3% (-0.86)
Over 3.5 4.41% (+0.29)
Under 3.5 95.59% (-0.29)

El Farolito Goals

Over 0.5 70.98% (+0.99)
Under 0.5 29.02% (-0.99)
Over 1.5 39.31% (+1.42)
Under 1.5 60.69% (-1.42)
Over 2.5 16.81% (+0.89)
Under 2.5 83.19% (-0.90)
Over 3.5 6.9% (+0.54)
Under 3.5 93.1% (-0.54)

Score analysis

Sacramento Republic 34.09%
Draw 24.7%
El Farolito 41.19%
Sacramento Republic
1-0 @ 8.79% (-0.46)
2-1 @ 6.97% (+0.05)
2-0 @ 5.66% (-0.14)
3-1 @ 3.32% (+0.20)
3-0 @ 2.54% (-0.03)
3-2 @ 2.5% (+0.27)
Other @ 4.31% (+0.23)
Total : 34.09%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.26% (-0.17)
0-0 @ 7.7% (-0.62)
2-2 @ 4.71% (+0.17)
Other @ 0.1% (+0.05)
Total : 24.7%
El Farolito
0-1 @ 10.12% (-0.53)
1-2 @ 8.06% (+0.13)
0-2 @ 7.23% (-0.04)
1-3 @ 3.63% (+0.11)
0-3 @ 3.12% (-0.03)
2-3 @ 2.23% (+0.15)
Other @ 6.8% (+0.48)
Total : 41.19%