US Open Cup
Mar 19, 2026 2.00am
2
0
ET Papa Murphy’s Park
  • F. Ajago 95' goal
  • F. Ajago 120'+2' goal

Sacramento Republic vs El Farolito - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Sacramento Republic

All competitions

El Farolito

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a El Farolito win with a probability of 41.19%. A win for Sacramento Republic had a probability of 34.1% and a draw had a probability of 24.71%.

The most likely scoreline for a El Farolito win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.06%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Sacramento Republic win was 1-0 (8.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.

Result

Sacramento Republic 34.1% (+0.15)
Draw 24.71% (-0.42)
El Farolito 41.19% (+0.27)

Both Teams to Score: 

48.57% (+1.25)

Goals

Over 1.5 73.37% (+1.57)
Under 1.5 26.63% (-1.57)
Over 2.5 49.24% (+1.93)
Under 2.5 50.76% (-1.93)
Over 3.5 28.53% (+1.81)
Under 3.5 71.47% (-1.80)
Over 4.5 16.87% (+1.32)
Under 4.5 83.13% (-1.32)

First Half Winner

Sacramento Republic 26.77% (+0.49)
Draw 40.82% (-0.26)
El Farolito 32.42% (-0.22)

Team To Score First

Sacramento Republic 44.73% (+0.80)
No Goal 7.7% (-0.62)
El Farolito 47.57% (-0.19)

Corners

Over 8 53.06% (+1.43)
Equal 8 11.46% (-0.10)
Under 8 35.48% (-1.33)
Over 9 41.8% (+1.40)
Equal 9 11.26% (+0.03)
Under 9 46.94% (-1.43)
Over 10.5 31.6% (+1.25)
Under 10.5 68.4% (-1.25)

Sacramento Republic Goals

Over 1.5 33.27% (+1.09)
Under 1.5 66.73% (-1.08)
Over 2.5 13.7% (+0.85)
Under 2.5 86.3% (-0.86)
Over 3.5 4.41% (+0.29)
Under 3.5 95.59% (-0.29)

El Farolito Goals

Over 0.5 70.98% (+0.99)
Under 0.5 29.02% (-0.99)
Over 1.5 39.31% (+1.42)
Under 1.5 60.69% (-1.42)
Over 2.5 16.81% (+0.89)
Under 2.5 83.19% (-0.90)
Over 3.5 6.9% (+0.54)
Under 3.5 93.1% (-0.54)

Score analysis

Sacramento Republic 34.09%
Draw 24.7%
El Farolito 41.19%
Sacramento Republic
1-0 @ 8.79% (-0.46)
2-1 @ 6.97% (+0.05)
2-0 @ 5.66% (-0.14)
3-1 @ 3.32% (+0.20)
3-0 @ 2.54% (-0.03)
3-2 @ 2.5% (+0.27)
Other @ 4.31% (+0.23)
Total : 34.09%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.26% (-0.17)
0-0 @ 7.7% (-0.62)
2-2 @ 4.71% (+0.17)
Other @ 0.1% (+0.05)
Total : 24.7%
El Farolito
0-1 @ 10.12% (-0.53)
1-2 @ 8.06% (+0.13)
0-2 @ 7.23% (-0.04)
1-3 @ 3.63% (+0.11)
0-3 @ 3.12% (-0.03)
2-3 @ 2.23% (+0.15)
Other @ 6.8% (+0.48)
Total : 41.19%