Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a El Farolito win with a probability of 41.19%. A win for Sacramento Republic had a probability of 34.1% and a draw had a probability of 24.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a El Farolito win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.06%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Sacramento Republic win was 1-0 (8.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.