Champions League
Dec 9, 2025 8.00pm
2
3
HT : 1 2
FT
  • Anan Khalaili 5' goal
  • Christian Burgess 59' yellowcard
  • Adem Zorgane 68' yellowcard
  • Anan Khalaili 71' goal
  • Ousseynou Niang 80' yellowcard
  • Promise Akinpelu 90' yellowcard
  • goal Igor Paixao 15'
  • yellowcard Timothy Weah 28'
  • goal Mason Greenwood 41'
  • goal Mason Greenwood 58'

Union SG vs Marseille - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Union SG

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Nov 25, 2025 5.45pm
Galatasaray 0 - 1 Union SG

Marseille

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Nov 25, 2025 8.00pm
Marseille 2 - 1 Newcastle

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 39.58%. A win for Union SG had a probability of 35.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.16%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest Union SG win was 2-1 (8.13%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.

Result

Union SG 35.71%
Draw 24.7%
Marseille 39.58%

Both Teams to Score: 

58.73%

Goals

Over 2.5 55.64%
Under 2.5 44.36%
Over 3.5 33.26%
Under 3.5 66.74%
Over 4.5 16.99%
Under 4.5 83.01%

Union SG Goals

Over 0.5 75.62%
Under 0.5 24.37%
Over 1.5 41.22%
Under 1.5 58.78%

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5 77.65%
Under 0.5 22.35%
Over 1.5 44.16%
Under 1.5 55.83%

Score analysis

Union SG 35.72%
Draw 24.7%
Marseille 39.58%
Union SG
2-1 @ 8.13%
1-0 @ 7.69%
2-0 @ 5.43%
3-1 @ 3.83%
3-2 @ 2.87%
3-0 @ 2.55%
4-1 @ 1.35%
4-2 @ 1.01%
Other @ 2.86%
Total : 35.72%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.52%
2-2 @ 6.09%
0-0 @ 5.45%
3-3 @ 1.43%
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 24.7%
Marseille
1-2 @ 8.63%
0-1 @ 8.16%
0-2 @ 6.12%
1-3 @ 4.31%
0-3 @ 3.05%
2-3 @ 3.04%
1-4 @ 1.62%
0-4 @ 1.14%
2-4 @ 1.14%
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 39.58%