Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 39.58%. A win for Union SG had a probability of 35.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.16%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest Union SG win was 2-1 (8.13%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.