Africa Cup of Nations Gameweek 1
Dec 23, 2025 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 2 0
FT Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah
  • Ellyes Skhiri 10' goal
  • Elias Achouri 40' goal
  • Elias Saad 50' yellowcard
  • Elias Achouri 64' goal
  • yellowcard Aziz Kayondo 14'
  • yellowcard Baba Alhassan 71'
  • goal Denis Omedi 90'+2'

Tunisia vs Uganda - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Tunisia

All competitions

Uganda

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 56.06%. A draw had a probability of 25.34% and a win for Uganda had a probability of 18.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.73%) and 2-1 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%) , while for a Uganda win it was 0-1 (7.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.

Result

Tunisia 56.06% ▲ (+0.11)
Draw 25.34% ▼ (-0.21)
Uganda 18.6% ▲ (+0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

42.91% ▲ (+0.69)

Goals

Over 2.5 41.69% ▲ (+0.83)
Under 2.5 58.31% ▼ (-0.82)
Over 3.5 21.07% ▲ (+0.65)
Under 3.5 78.93% ▼ (-0.64)
Over 4.5 8.96% ▲ (+0.38)
Under 4.5 91.04% ▼ (-0.38)

Tunisia Goals

Over 0.5 79.15% ▲ (+0.38)
Under 0.5 20.85% ▼ (-0.38)
Over 1.5 46.46% ▲ (+0.59)
Under 1.5 53.54% ▼ (-0.58)

Uganda Goals

Over 0.5 54.21% ▲ (+0.62)
Under 0.5 45.79% ▼ (-0.62)
Over 1.5 18.44% ▲ (+0.48)
Under 1.5 81.56% ▼ (-0.48)

Score analysis

Tunisia 56.05%
Draw 25.34%
Uganda 18.6%
Tunisia
1-0 @ 14.96% ▼ (-0.30)
2-0 @ 11.73% ▼ (-0.10)
2-1 @ 9.17% ▲ (+0.09)
3-0 @ 6.13% ▲ (+0.02)
3-1 @ 4.79% ▲ (+0.10)
4-0 @ 2.4% ▲ (+0.04)
4-1 @ 1.88% ▲ (+0.06)
3-2 @ 1.87% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 3.12%
Total : 56.05%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.69% ▼ (-0.04)
0-0 @ 9.55% ▼ (-0.31)
2-2 @ 3.58% ▲ (+0.10)
Other @ 0.53%
Total : 25.34%
Uganda
0-1 @ 7.46% ▼ (-0.11)
1-2 @ 4.57% ▲ (+0.07)
0-2 @ 2.91% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 1.19% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 2.47%
Total : 18.6%