Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vila Real win with a probability of 55.68%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Atletico Arcos had a probability of 18.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vila Real win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.04%) and 2-1 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.77%), while for an Atletico Arcos win it was 0-1 (7.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vila Real would win this match.