Taca de Portugal
Sep 20, 2026 3.00pm

Guarda vs Chaves - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Guarda

All competitions

Chaves

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Chaves win with a probability of 64.21%. A draw has a probability of 22.21% and a win for Guarda has a probability of 13.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win is 0-1 with a probability of 14.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (12.78%) and 1-2 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.47%) , while for a Guarda win it is 1-0 (6.03%).

Result

Guarda 13.58% (+0.39)
Draw 22.21% (-0.10)
Chaves 64.21% (-0.29)

Both Teams to Score: 

43.59% (+2.54)

Goals

Over 1.5 70.52% (+3.19)
Under 1.5 29.48% (-3.20)
Over 2.5 44.99% (+3.50)
Under 2.5 55.01% (-3.50)
Over 3.5 24.34% (+2.27)
Under 3.5 75.66% (-2.28)
Over 4.5 15.48% (+1.34)
Under 4.5 84.52% (-1.35)

First Half Winner

Guarda 14.07% (-0.37)
Draw 43.16% (-0.91)
Chaves 42.76% (+1.26)

Team To Score First

Guarda 27.01% (-1.02)
No Goal 8.8% (-1.05)
Chaves 64.19% (+2.08)

Corners

Over 8 44.72% (+1.18)
Equal 8 11.63% (-0.07)
Under 8 43.65% (-1.11)
Over 9 34.02% (+1.15)
Equal 9 10.7% (+0.04)
Under 9 55.28% (-1.18)
Over 10.5 24.93% (+1.04)
Under 10.5 75.07% (-1.04)

Guarda Goals

Over 1.5 12.81% (+1.67)
Under 1.5 87.19% (-1.68)
Over 2.5 1.83% (+0.92)
Under 2.5 98.17% (-0.93)
Over 3.5 0.42% (+0.14)
Under 3.5 99.58% (-0.15)

Chaves Goals

Over 0.5 82.16% (+1.49)
Under 0.5 17.84% (-1.49)
Over 1.5 52.89% (+2.33)
Under 1.5 47.11% (-2.33)
Over 2.5 27.59% (+1.29)
Under 2.5 72.41% (-1.29)
Over 3.5 12.32% (+0.98)
Under 3.5 87.68% (-0.97)

Score analysis

Guarda 13.59%
Draw 22.22%
Chaves 64.21%
Guarda
1-0 @ 6.03% (-0.55)
2-1 @ 3.52% (+0.42)
2-0 @ 2.27% (-0.36)
Other @ 0.41% (+0.14)
Total : 13.59%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.47% (+0.17)
0-0 @ 8.8% (-1.05)
2-2 @ 2.89% (+0.75)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 22.22%
Chaves
0-1 @ 14.67% (-1.60)
0-2 @ 12.78% (-0.09)
1-2 @ 9.23% (+0.17)
0-3 @ 7.55% (+0.34)
1-3 @ 5.37% (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.3% (-0.06)
Other @ 12.31% (+0.98)
Total : 64.21%