South Africa host Zambia on Wednesday in the final matchday of the group stages in the COSAFA Cup, in their bid to reach the semi-finals to be played on Friday.
The home side play Lesotho first on Tuesday, while Zambia host Botswana before the two clash at the Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium in Port Elizabeth.
Match preview
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South Africa are on course to remain unbeaten in the group stages of the 2021 COSAFA Cup, winning their first two fixtures against Botswana and Eswatini.
Morena Ramoreboli's side won both of those games by the scoreline of 1-0, goals coming from Kagiso Malinga and Thabang Sibanyoni, and Veli Mothwa is the only keeper to not concede a goal yet in this year's tournament.
South Africa are hosting this competition for the fourth time in the last five years, and they are looking to better their fifth-placed finish from the last three COSAFA Cup tournaments.
The nation last won this trophy in 2016 after beating Botswana 3-2 in the final, and they have set themselves up well to progress from the group stages again this time around, something they have achieved at every COSAFA Cup since 2006.
Whether South Africa go into this fixture with Zambia top of Group A remains to be seen, considering they must face Lesotho just 24 hours prior to kickoff on wednesday.
Zambia's hopes of progressing into the semi-finals are extremely slim given that they have lost their opening two fixtures against Lesotho and Eswatini.
Last time out at the Isaac Wolfson Stadium, Zambia fell to a 53rd-minute strike from Sandile Gamedze to all but end their hopes of progressing through the group.
For Milutin Sredojevic's side to qualify for the semi-final they would have to win their remaining two games against Botswana and South Africa, also hoping that Wednesday's opponents lose to Lesotho on Tuesday.
This year's COSAFA Cup has been below the standard that Zambia have set themselves over the last few years, having won the tournament in 2019 and finished as runners-up in 2017 and 2018.
Zambia last faced South Africa in an international friendly last October, when they ran out 2-1 winners thanks to goals from Kelvin Kampamba and Chaniza Zulu.
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Team News
South Africa goalkeeper Mothwa has been a reliable number one for Ramoreboli's side, keeping two clean sheets so far, and that was after he was brought into the starting lineup ahead of Ronwen Williams, who conceded twice in South Africa's final warm-up fixture prior to this tournament.
South Africa usually play with a back three protecting Mothwa in goal, and while Rushine De Reuck has retained his place in the starting lineup, Nyiko Mobbie and Sibanyoni have rotated with Mashweu Mphahlele and Austin Dube during this tournament.
During their last game against Eswatini, the whole Zambian back four received yellow cards, with Zachariah Chilongoshi, Dominic Chanda and Kabaso Chongo being substituted off in that game.
Justin Shonga has scored Zambia's only goal of the COSAFA Cup this year and he usually lines up alongside Gramphani Lungu in a two-man attack for Zambia.
The starting lineups for both of the teams on Wednesday will heavily depend upon who is selected to play in their fixtures on Tuesday, and it is likely we will see alterations to both South Africa and Zambia.
South Africa possible starting lineup:
Mothwa; Mobbie, De Reuck, Sibanyoni; Saleng, Sithebe, Brooks, Mphahlele; Mkhulise, Phohlongo; Dube
Zambia possible starting lineup:
Mweene; Kabwe, Chongo, Chama, Chepeshi; Mulenga, Sakala, Phiri, Kampamba; Lungu, Shonga
We say: South Africa 2-0 Zambia
South Africa could already be qualified for the semi-finals by the time kickoff against Zambia arrives on Wednesday, but that will not result in any let up in quality from the hosts, who will want to enter the knockout stages in strong form should they get there.
Zambia's tournament has been far below the standard of previous tournaments for the nation, and they have left themselves with too much to do in their final two games, and their low confidence could result in another defeat.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Africa win with a probability of 52.54%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Zambia had a probability of 21.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a South Africa win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.56%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.1%), while for a Zambia win it was 0-1 (7.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.
