Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NK Domzale win with a probability of 45.56%. A win for Aluminij had a probability of 29.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a NK Domzale win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.19%) and 0-2 (7.91%). The likeliest Aluminij win was 1-0 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NK Domzale would win this match.