Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reggina win with a probability of 35.59%. A win for Sudtirol had a probability of 35.22% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reggina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.38%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Sudtirol win was 0-1 (12.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Reggina would win this match.